The outcome of next week’s election in Israel is
irrelevant in deciding the future of the peace process.
The two leading candidates are from the right-wing Likud Party
and the center-left Labor Party. Current Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon is leading the Likud Party in his bid for re-election
against the up-and-coming Haifa Mayor Amran Mitzna. Each candidate
has a different vision for achieving peace with the unruly
Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But
regardless of the outcome, the status quo will not drastically
change due to the very nature of the Israeli parliamentary
system.
Under this system, the political party with the most seats in
Israel’s 120-seat parliament ““ known as the Knesset
““ chooses the prime minister. This leader must then form a
coalition with opposing political parties in order to get a
majority vote in the Knesset. Although recent polls indicate the
incumbent Sharon holds a commanding lead over his challenger,
whoever the winner may be, he must woo the other parties to join
his in order to operate as a unity government.
Labor leader Mitzna advanced in polls during a bribery scandal
that emerged against Sharon and his two sons ““ in which
Sharon denied any wrongdoing ““ only to fall drastically after
announcing that he and the Labor Party would not join
Sharon’s Likud Party to form a unity government. In a last
ditch effort to regain votes, Mitzna announced he would back the
Likud Party in time of war or any national emergency. This historic
refusal to join a unity government under Sharon will force the
prime minister, if re-elected, to court more right-wing Knesset
members. This move will in turn alienate Israel’s centrist
secular population who voiced their concern against radical right
wingers by electing the relatively moderate Sharon.
A more radical government will most likely pressure Sharon
““ under the threat of withdrawal from his coalition ““
to oust Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat from the West Bank and
perhaps from Israel in total. Sharon has already stated he would
not negotiate with Arafat and is hoping a new Palestinian leader
who is committed to peace will take his place.
Sharon has also stated he would not exile Arafat, but some
right-wing parties may make such a demand in order to join his
government. This could lead to either another call for early
elections due to Sharon’s inability to form a unity
government, or a coalition with the leftist Labor Party. Either
way, progress toward peace will be severely stalled. However, if
Sharon is able to form a strong coalition government, and the
Palestinians can find a new leader who is dedicated to peace, then
peace can be achieved. Sharon has stated he would be willing to
make the necessary concessions for peace if there is a true partner
on the Palestinian side. In such a case, the outcome of next
week’s election is irrelevant in terms of achieving a true
and lasting peace.
True peace cannot be achieved by either a left or right-wing
Israeli prime minister if Arafat is in power. Peace can be achieved
by either a left or right-wing Israeli prime minister if a
Palestinian leader who is dedicated to peace replaces Arafat.