Scoop Dreams columnist Eli Smukler checks in this week with his predictions for the Pac-10 Tournament, which runs today through Saturday at Staples Center. You can find last week’s Power Rankings here.
OPENING ROUND
No. 8 Stanford v. No. 9 Oregon State
Season Series: 1-1
It’s safe to say that these two young teams are in the worst shape of any entering this tournament. The Cardinal has lost five of its last six Pac-10 games, and the Beavers have lost seven of eight. What makes it interesting, though, is that OSU’s one win in the last month came against Stanford at home. Despite that, Stanford shooting machine Jeremy Green is the difference maker here. He has the ability to take his team to a higher level, like he did in the Cardinal’s upset of No. 2-seed ASU last year at Staples.
PICK: STANFORD
No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Arizona State
Season Series: 2-0 ASU
A few weeks ago this would have been a no-brainer. Oregon was the conference’s surprise darling, and ASU was the surprise trash dump. Since then though, the Ducks are on a four-game slide during which they’ve given up 83 points per game. The Sun Devils, however, are actually on a mini-win streak that started with a 20-point roll over Oregon last Thursday.
PICK: ASU
QUARTERFINALS
No. 5 California vs. No. 4 USC
Season Series: 1-1
It’s plain and simple: either of these two teams could win this tournament. The Trojans have been playing their best basketball of the season as of late, winning five of their last six, including marquee wins at Washington and one at home against Pac-10 champ Arizona. Cal has been no slouch either, currently on a four-game win streak spurred by a dramatic overtime win over UCLA. The Golden Bears also have newly crowned Freshman of the Year Allen Crabbe who has been on a tear lately. USC has resurrected talk of an at-large bid to the NCAAs, which could become a reality if the Trojans make a run here, and that motivation might just be the edge.
PICK: USC
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 8 Stanford
Season Series: 2-0 Arizona
It’s hard to see the Cardinal pulling off the early afternoon upset here, especially with the short turnaround having played the night before. Also, Stanford really doesn’t have anyone who can size up and stop Pac-10 Player of the Year Derrick Williams.
PICK: ARIZONA
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 10 Arizona State
Season Series: 2-0 UCLA
Of course, Bruin fans would love to see that fat No. 10 label next to their opponent, but UCLA hasn’t been perfect in its two wins against ASU this season. In their first matchup, the Bruins needed overtime to outlast the Sun Devils and then, two weeks ago at Pauley Pavilion, ASU took a 21-9 lead before UCLA realized what was going on. The money will be on the hometown team to take this game in stride ““ and with its significant size advantage it should ““ but just beware that the Hollywood Bruins don’t always follow the script.
PICK: UCLA
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 6 Washington State
Season Series: 2-0 WSU
The Cougars’ season sweep of the more highly touted Huskies has made this one of the juiciest Pac-10 quarterfinal games in recent memory. After being the shoo-in preseason choice to win this league, Washington has slowly been drained of its confidence and a loss to USC on senior day capped off its season in the wrong way. The Cougars, who wasted away a nice non-conference record, have been even more inconsistent than their rival, except, of course, when it comes to playing them. With conference scoring leader Klay Thompson back after his one-game suspension, WSU is a talented enough team to put Washington in some serious bubble trouble.
PICK: WSU
SEMIFINALS
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 USC
Season Series: 1-1
USC always seems to play above its potential at the Pac-10 Tournament. Obviously playing within walking distance from its campus doesn’t hurt. Arizona will certainly be out for revenge in this one though, after the Trojans scored the upset just blocks away at the Galen Center two weeks ago. If anyone in the league can outshine Derrick Williams, it’s USC big man Nikola Vucevic, who had 43 points in the teams’ two games this season. Of course, the Wildcats are No. 1 for a reason. The are an incredibly efficient shooting team and coach Sean Miller will likely have them much more focused now than in their most recent ““ and unsuccessful ““ trip to Los Angeles.
PICK: ARIZONA
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 6 Washington State
Season Series: 2-0 UCLA
Surely, Washington State would love another crack at UCLA after the Bruins snatched a victory away from the Cougars last Saturday, as they did in Westwood to start the Pac-10 season. Who knows what would have happened up in Pullman, Wash., if Klay Thompson had been in the lineup? If the Bruins have their heads in the right place coming into the game though, the Cougs are a perfect matchup for UCLA, with shoot-first guards and less bulk down low to stop the Reeves Nelson-Joshua Smith tandem.
PICK: UCLA
FINALS
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 UCLA
Season Series: 1-1
These are the conference’s only two teams who don’t need a Pac-10 Tournament championship to be sure of an NCAA bid, but one of them is likely to claim it nonetheless. Both UCLA and Arizona looked so dominant in their wins against each other on their home court that its hard to say what might happen if they face each other on a neutral one. The Bruins have more scoring options, but that’s only while they’re not throwing the ball into opponents’ hands, which they have a tendency to do. A lot. UCLA is a better defensive team and has shown it’s possible to hold off Derrick Williams, at least temporarily. However, if the Wildcats are allowed to start running, the game could get away from UCLA in a hurry as it did in Tucson, Ariz. Regardless of the outcome though, this matchup would be a perfect way for both teams’ to prepare their March Madness runs.
PICK: UCLA