On the heels of an extensive Republican victory in the midterm election, there is little hope that a pathway to citizenship for undocumented students will be approved in the near future, two UCLA professors said.
The Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act would provide undocumented students who complete high school an opportunity to obtain citizenship.
The bipartisan bill went without a vote in September after Republicans filibustered the National Defense Authorization Act, to which the DREAM Act was attached as an amendment.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has promised to put the DREAM Act on the floor during Congress’ lame duck session, which begins this week. The lame duck session refers to the meeting of Congress after an election of successors but before new members begin their term on Jan. 3.
But chances that the act will pass during the session could be slim because of the session’s time constraints and limited agenda, said Mark Peterson, a public policy and political science professor.
The lame duck session will most likely be dominated by negotiations over legislation regarding the inheritance tax and the future of the Bush-era tax cuts, which means party members probably won’t make the DREAM Act a priority, Peterson said.
“Harry Reid has a personal need in a way to at least make the effort at his end, because he pulled out with significant support from Latino voters,” Peterson said.
“(Reid) sets the agenda, but others can pretty much disrupt it if they want to.”
Peterson noted that though some Republicans might be willing to work on the issue, they may not feel it is a winning situation for their side and will choose instead to focus the time of the lame duck session on legislation dealing with taxes and economic issues.
But Mario De Leon, a fourth-year international development studies student and a co-chair of Improving Dreams, Equality, Access and Success at UCLA, said he believes the act has the momentum to pass during the lame duck session.
De Leon said he hopes some Republican senators who filibustered the DREAM Act in September will support the act now that it has been reintroduced as a stand-alone bill.
Democrats might avoid pushing the act through during the lame duck session though, as it might appear as shoddy political maneuvering and could create ill will between parties, said political science lecturer Phil Gussin.
It is going to look like the Democrats are still trying to fulfill their agenda, which in theory was rejected by voters in the last election, Gussin said.
Peterson said he believes that failure to pass during the lame duck session will be the end of the bill for the foreseeable future, or at least until the next election.
“I just cannot imagine that (the Republican House) would make this an agenda item,” he said. “I would be surprised if there’s any traction at all (for the DREAM Act) in the next Congress.”
Many of the new ranks of Republican members of the House will not consider the DREAM Act before enacting immigration reform legislation that would secure the borders first, he added.
Gussin said he believes Republicans might make use of a strategy in which they stall the act during the lame duck session, then pass it afterward, allowing them to take credit for its passage and increase their popularity among Latino voters.
Whether Republicans could get enough party members on board for such a strategy is another issue but not impossible, Gussin said.
“I think that if they’re going to be strategic, they’ll go ahead and pass the DREAM Act” he said. “Based on principle alone they would probably reject it.”
Gussin noted that Republicans used similar tactics of voting against some of their traditional principles earlier this year when they voted against bills proposed by the Democratic party that they actually agreed with, such as a bill that would give tax cuts to small businesses.
“It worked, and they won big in the House,” Gussin said. “I can’t see them abandoning the strategy of being strategic rather than principled after such a tremendous success.”