Just a glance at ballots from recent presidential elections
makes it clear that blacks, Latinos and women have been vying for
votes alongside names such as George W. Bush and John Kerry for
some time.
They have just never done so as Democrats or Republicans.
But this year, it is possible that the Democratic nomination
could go to a candidate from one of these groups.
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and Bill
Richardson, the Democratic governor of New Mexico, have all
announced their plans to run for the presidency, and each is from a
racial group or gender from which a president has never been
elected ““ blacks, women and Latinos, respectively.
The diverse set of candidates has generated a great deal of
discussion among experts and within the media regarding these
candidates’ chances for success.
Robert Erikson, a professor of political science at Columbia
University, said being a woman or a racial minority is not a total
obstacle to gaining the presidential nomination, but Clinton and
Obama may face obstacles encountered by previous candidates who did
not fit the mold of those who typically enter the White House.
“A lot of people can remember John Kennedy facing
hurdles,” Erikson said, referring to Kennedy’s Catholic
faith, a subject which generated much attention during the time of
his campaign.
Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science at UCLA, said she
does not believe it would be unusual if there were segments of the
American population who would not vote for Obama or Clinton on the
basis of race or gender.
But she did suggest that the presence of a female in the race
could affect other candidates’ campaigns.
“There’s some evidence that men running against
women are less likely to attack women,” Vavreck said.
“But we really don’t know much about this thing at the
president level.”
Erickson said that though there may be people who are
disinclined to vote for a black or female candidate based on the
candidate’s race or gender, those factors are obstacles that
can be overcome.
He added that for whoever receives the democratic nomination,
the focus will not be on their race or gender, but on other
campaign factors.
Mark Petracca, chairman of the Department of Political Science
at UC Irvine, said while the entrance of Clinton and Obama into the
campaign is “historic,” gender or race may be a less
important factor in getting votes.
“We elect executives,” Petracca said, explaining
that Americans in the 20th century have primarily elected those
with executive experience for president, including governors and
vice presidents. Of all the presidents elected in the 20th century,
Warren G. Harding and John F. Kennedy were the only presidents to
be elected when they were U.S. senators.
With this trend in mind, Petracca said he believes race and
gender may be less of a determinant factor.
“It’s not their gender or their race. It’s
what they’re doing now,” he said.
Petracca said Richardson could have the executive advantage, as
he combines the socio-demographic qualities of Hispanic ethnicity
with executive branch experience from his time as a cabinet member
in the Clinton administration and governor of New Mexico. But
Petracca added that he does not have the same financial backing as
Clinton or other candidates.
Financial support will be important for candidates to gain
support. Clinton has already decided to forgo public campaign
financing, given her strong fundraising abilities. Clinton’s
advisers have not denied estimates that Clinton will raise about
$100 million by the end of the year.
And the competing campaigns could make it difficult to discern
which candidate has the most support any time soon.
“The Democrats will slug it out, and I can just imagine it
will be months before the Democrats know who they will
nominate,” Petracca said.
With reports from Bruin wire services.