With March rapidly approaching, the bubble for many teams across the country is getting bigger and bigger. For others, those bubbles have already burst.
West Virginia’s win over then-No. 2 UCLA on Saturday probably will be enough to move the Mountaineers solidly into the NCAA Tournament.
John Beilein’s squad isn’t a lock quite yet for the Big Dance, but with easily winnable Big East games against Seton Hall and Cincinnati at home remaining, getting to nine or 10 wins in conference will allow the team to relax on Selection Sunday. (The Mountaineers are currently 7-5 in league play.)
Here are six more intriguing at-large bubble situations forming across the country, one from each major conference:
1. Duke (18-7, 5-6) ““ The traditional ACC power has fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games, their longest losing streak in 11 years.
The Devils, needless to say, will need to play much better with four out of their final six on the road, but it would probably take a monumental collapse to keep this team out as their RPI, and Strength of Schedule (SOS) numbers are simply too good at this point.
2. Michigan State (18-8, 5-6) ““ The bubble for Tom Izzo’s squad may have burst with the 24-point thrashing at the hands of Purdue. The Spartans will have two shots at Wisconsin to get a huge win to boost their fading chances.
If State can’t beat the Badgers in either game, it likely needs to sweep its remaining games to keep hope alive including a home tilt with Indiana. This year, in a weak Big 10, a league mark north of .500 will be absolutely crucial to securing an at-large bid.
3. Texas Tech (16-10, 5-6) ““ Bobby Knight’s boys have a top-10 SOS, but five straight losses almost burst this bubble. Last night’s big win at Texas A&M keeps them alive for an at-large berth.
The Red Raiders now have beaten Kansas at home and the Aggies twice, but close losses to Nebraska and Baylor may come back to haunt this squad.
4. Washington (16-8, 6-7) ““ Can the Huskies make it seven Pac-10 teams into the tournament or possibly overtake Stanford as the last team in? Their power numbers are very soft, but as badly as they played earlier in the conference season, they still have a legitimate shot at escaping the bubble.
With matchups against UCLA, USC, Oregon, in-state rival Wazzu, and Pitt left, these young pups will have a shot at racking up some huge wins that will go a long way with the selection committee.
5. Georgia (14-9, 6-5) ““ The Bulldogs have fallen out of the nation’s spotlight in recent years in the wake of the mess Jim Harrick left behind. This year though they have an outside shot at snaring a bid to the Dance, and have been the surprise of the SEC.
Georgia’s next four games are very winnable before Kentucky and Tennessee to end the year. The Dogs might need a win in either game to overcome a relatively soft RPI and maybe another win in the SEC tournament.
6. Louisville (18-8, 8-4) ““ The Cardinals got a huge win on the road against Pitt on Monday night. They had previously been 0-5 against teams in the RPI top 50, with their best win being at home over an average Syracuse team.
Rick Pitino and his squad have one more chance Saturday at No. 12 Marquette to impress the selection committee. Regardless of the outcome, sweeping the final three (St. John’s, UConn and Seton Hall) would likely lock up a return trip to the NCAAs.
E-mail Lee at jlee3@media.ucla.edu.