Current poll results predicting the position of presidential candidates in upcoming state primaries are not necessarily a reflection of actual primary outcomes, but they do play a role in determining the viability of nominees in the general election.
Polls evaluating several states to represent the attitude of voters across the country toward candidates indicate that Sen. Hillary Clinton is leading the Democrats with Sen. Barack Obama and John Edwards following, according to Pollster, a Web site that tracks election polls.
For the Republican party, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is leading in the national polls, followed by Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain, respectively, according to Pollster.
Tim Groeling, assistant professor of communication studies, said poll results taken months away from election dates are not always significant.
“When the public is surveyed so early on, they don’t have all the information they need to make a decision. It’s prudent for them to be thinking about other things, like how to pay their mortgage, when they won’t be voting in two or three months in some cases,” Groeling said.
Groeling also said voters themselves are not necessarily affected by the outcomes of polls that precede primary elections. But Groeling said watching their favorite candidates drop in the polls could make voters less likely to turn out on election day.
But Groeling said early polling can play a role in the “invisible primary,” in which candidates who do well are most likely to seem viable and thus most likely to be funded.
He added that individual state primaries are of importance to candidates themselves because candidates use primaries as a tool to be regarded as a more viable candidate later on in the election process.
The earliest election is the upcoming Iowa primary, for which current poll results differ from national ones.
Iowa polling results indicate that Gov. Mitt Romney is in the lead, followed by Mike Huckabee and Giuliani, according to Pollster.
“Nobody is going to win all of the primaries and caucuses. In the end, (Giuliani) is in the position to win the most primaries and caucuses, and that’s what you really need to win,” said Jarrod Agen, regional communications director for the Giuliani campaign.
Recent press coverage, including a poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post, has highlighted an Obama lead over Clinton in Iowa. Groeling said the individual numbers of this poll are not significant because Obama’s lead is still within the margin of error of previous results, indicating no shift in position for either candidate from previous polls.
A shift in a candidates’ position in the polls can be caused by a variety of reasons, such as candidates’ stances on issues or how they relate to voters, said Matthew Baum, associate professor of communication studies and political science. But Baum noted Hillary Clinton as an exception due to her tendency to polarize voters.
Baum said that election polls are more accurate as the election date is closer, due to the fact that swing voters, who may often have a large impact on elections, decide how they will vote very close to the election day.
Hector Barajas, director of communications for the California Republican Party, said that, in California, Republican voters are concerned about issues such as gas prices, global warming, health care, jobs, crime, education, security and immigration, which can influence changes in poll results.
Roger Salazar, spokesperson for the California Democratic Party, said similar issues are also important to Democrats in California but added that the primary concern is the war in Iraq.