As the Bruins (6-5, 5-3 Pac-10) enter the final game of their regular season, they are in an unusual spot, even for the wild world of college football. They have a chance of playing in the Rose Bowl, or they could miss a bowl game entirely.
The first order of business for the Bruins is taking care of No. 8 USC (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10) and finishing the season at 7-5. In that case, they would be guaranteed to reach a bowl game but would still have to wait and see the outcomes of a few other games to learn their exact future.
If UCLA wins and Arizona (5-6, 4-4 Pac-10) upsets No. 13 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10), the Bruins would reach the Rose Bowl through a complex tiebreaker.
UCLA hasn’t been to a Rose Bowl since 1999, when they lost to the Ron Dayne-led Wisconsin team, 38-31.
If the Bruins make it back this year, they will probably play a Big Ten opponent again. First in line is conference-champion Ohio State, but Illinois could get the call if the Buckeyes are instead invited to the BCS Championship Game.
But that’s only the Bruins’ best case scenario among several possible outcomes.
Even if the Bruins win, they only go to the Rose Bowl with an Arizona State loss. If the Sun Devils win, UCLA would likely wind up in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego or the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.
If the Bruins lose Saturday, the Trojans will go to the Rose Bowl and UCLA will have to settle for a less-prestigious bowl game ““ or none at all.
The other bowl games with Pac-10 affiliations that may invite the Bruins are the Emerald Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl.
It is unlikely that the Bruins would play in the Las Vegas or Emerald Bowl, though. Because UCLA played in the Emerald Bowl last year, the organizers of the game will probably want a new team, possibly Cal, which would certainly draw more fans to AT&T Park in San Francisco.
The Las Vegas Bowl is expected to invite BYU, the champion of the Mountain West Conference. Because BYU and UCLA have already played, and bowl organizers generally don’t like to schedule rematch games, the Bruins probably won’t wind up in Vegas.
And if the Bruins lose, Arizona beats Arizona State, and Cal beats Stanford, UCLA might not be invited to any bowl game at all. In that scenario, Arizona State would not get a BCS at-large bid and there would be seven bowl-eligible teams for only six spots, and UCLA could be left hanging.
That would be a tough pill for Karl Dorrell’s team to swallow. The Bruins haven’t missed a bowl game since 2001, and they’ve never missed a bowl game under Dorrell.