The majority of citizens from the 24 states involved in Super Tuesday voted for Clinton to be their Democratic presidential candidate, with Obama not too far behind, and McCain for the Republican candidate.
Clinton won California by 53 percent, while McCain took California with 43 percent, as of press time. Clinton also took most of the Northeastern states. Obama, on the other hand, won many of the Southern states. For the Republicans, Romney and Huckabee both took a few states, but the majority went to McCain.
The votes in the primaries are used to allocate delegates to the candidates in their party’s conventions. Both parties deal with the distribution of delegates differently.
The Republicans use the winner-take-all method, in which the candidate who wins the state gets all of the delegates.
Because of this, McCain is projected to be the nominee for the Republican Party, as he won the majority of states and therefore has collected many delegates, said Susanne Lohmann, a professor of political science.
“The Republicans have locked in the nominee,” she said.
The Democrats are allocating their delegates proportionately, meaning the candidates will be given a share of the delegates based on their percentage of the vote. Though Obama won the majority of the states, Clinton won the states with the greatest number of delegates. Obama will also receive a substantial portion of delegates because, in many states, the two were close in the percentage of votes they received.
Clinton has 668 delegates, while Obama has 557, as of press time.
This means that the Democratic nominee will not be determined until one of them has attained 2,025 delegates, the number needed to secure the nomination. This could be determined as late as the Democratic National Convention, said Tim Groeling, an assistant professor of communication studies.
He said he projects that, even though Clinton won the majority of Super Tuesday states, nothing has been finalized for the Democratic Party and said he believes Obama still has a chance for a comeback.
“Who the nominee is will be a race for the next weeks. I think Obama will do better in the next primaries ““ he’s campaigned well and at this point has a fundraising lead and a more favorable media coverage,” Groeling said.
The two Democratic candidates have both said they will continue to campaign to the end. Obama is planning on advertising more heavily, and Clinton called for more debates yesterday, Groeling said.
For Lohmann, the results of today’s Democratic primaries were expected. She said Clinton had certain groups with high voter turnout who supported her, such as older people, women and many in the working class.
“Looking at the underlying fundamentals, it was clear that Clinton would make it,” she said.
She said the Republican primaries were a bit more uncertain to her, but she understands why McCain won since he appeals to a more independent, less conservative group.
This, however, may be a problem for the Republicans in the general election. McCain appeals to only a portion of the more liberal Republicans, Groeling said.
“On the Republican side, there are fairly deep ideological divides, and a sizable group of Republicans don’t want the nominee to be McCain,” he said. “I think they’ll face a point when it comes to the general election where they might not vote at all.”
He said that in recent years Republicans have been able to beat the Democrats through mobilizing more voters, and divisiveness could be a major problem for them.
David Lazar, chairman of Bruin Republicans and a former Daily Bruin Viewpoint columnist, said he is curious to see how McCain does in the general election.
“As a candidate, he seems like a complex guy. He seems to be reshaping his image, especially in terms of the economy, to get a more mainstream vote,” said Lazar. “I think it’s hard to say at this point where he’s headed in his policies, but it seems he’s trying to appeal to the Reagan element of the Republican Party, and that seems to have a pretty broad appeal.”
The Democratic Party, however, will most likely stay united because both candidates are seen by voters as fairly similar in their political views, Groeling said.
“Democrats have less ideological distance. The variation between Clinton and Obama is quite small ““ they really were arguing for the same fundamentals of many issues,” he said.
Lohmann said she believes both candidates appeal to most Democratic voters.
“Things in general look good for the Democrats. Obama voters like Clinton, and Clinton voters like Obama. Basically, the voters like each other’s candidates,” she said.
The polls in this year’s primaries have fluctuated often, especially those regarding the Democratic nominees.
The reason for this is twofold, Lohmann said. For one, a variety of methods are used to produce raw numbers in the polls and the methodology for these polls are based on past experience.
This year, however, the dynamics of the elections were very different since a woman and a black man were running, which can cause discrepancies, Lohmann said.