With the NFL season officially over and the NBA entering mile 14 of its seasonal marathon, it’s time for bracketologists, chest-painted students and the mania of college basketball to take center stage. For the next four weeks, teams will battle for an invitation to America’s most beautiful dance: the NCAA Tournament.
Like last year’s tournament, this season has been dominated by an elite group of teams. This year it’s been resident powerhouses Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA, along with undefeated Memphis. Over the next 31 days, they will jockey for four No. 1 seeds.
Top-ranked Memphis will assuredly fill one of these slots come Selection Sunday. The trendy question surrounding Memphis is not whether it will earn a No. 1 seed, but whether it can become the first team since UNLV in 1991 to enter the tournament undefeated. The Tigers, the nation’s lone undefeated team, will encounter only one more top-50 RPI opponent, Tennessee, on Feb. 23.
If Memphis defeats Tennessee, as the odds-makers expect, only seven mediocre Conference USA contests will separate it from 34-0. Recent NFL history suggests the Tigers might want to lose at some point to avoid the pressure and media blitz that will surround “40-0.” Not only does that have a marketable ring to it, but it would shatter the current record for wins in a season (37).
North Carolina and Duke, the Pepsi and Coke of the ACC, are yet again battling for a No. 1 seed. With the ACC having a down year by its basketball-mecca standards, the conference could send only four teams to the tournament; thus it is likely only one of the Carolina schools will grace the top line come Selection Sunday. It will probably hinge on who wins the season series. Duke won the first meeting, so they meet in the regular season finale and could play a third time in the ACC Tournament. There is an outside chance of both teams claiming No. 1 seeds, though Kansas and UCLA would both have to falter.
Of course, outside of Memphis and the two teams on Tobacco Road, much is left to the unpredictable whim of the NCAA Selection Committee. The vagaries of the committee have been on full display in past years; one year’s committee espouses the value of the “full body of work,” another emphasizes how well a team finished. The committee likes to throw out catchphrases a political adviser would be envious of, such as “signature wins” and “tournament resumes.” But which criteria the committee will focus on this year is unclear.
Kansas was searching for that elusive “signature win” Monday at Texas, but the Jayhawks failed to solidify a No. 1 seed by losing in Austin, and they will likely head into March without a marquee victory. Though unbeaten two weeks ago, KU’s resume leaves much to be desired. They possess only four victories against the RPI top-50, and their best win is against Arizona, a team now struggling to make the tournament. With no top-25 RPI teams remaining on their schedule, the Jayhawks need to beat Kansas State and win at Texas A&M to close the season. Kansas will likely be a top seed, but another loss or failing to win the Big 12 Tournament might drop them a line.
If the traditional programs stumble, tradtional football powers Texas or Tennessee could steal a No. 1 seed. The Longhorns’ win over the Jayhawks on Monday culminates an impressive triumvirate of victories over KU, Tennessee and UCLA. Though unlikely, if Texas wins the Big 12 Tournament and finishes with only one more loss, it will be difficult for the committee not to reward them with a top seed. Even though Tennessee is No. 1 in the RPI, outside of upsetting Memphis, it will take a near perfect finish and SEC championship for the Vols to secure a top seed.
Barring a string of losses, UCLA will end up in the West Regional for the third consecutive year, regardless of whether there is a “1” or “2” next to its name in the bracket. The committee attempts to reward high seeds with placement in a local regional, even at the expense of higher-seeded teams. Memphis and Kansas found this out the last two years when the Bruins sported a noticeable home-court advantage in Oakland and San Jose despite being the lower seed both times.
This wrinkle in the selection process means UCLA will have yet another light travel schedule in March. They will make the arduous trek to Anaheim for the tournament’s first weekend, and if they advance, the West Regionals await in Phoenix, a mere eight-hour drive from Westwood.
UCLA has played in similar proximity for the last two seasons and both times, behind a partisan crowd, advanced to the Final Four.
E-mail Taylor at btaylor@media.ucla.edu.