John Calipari’s shoulder must be getting sore: The Memphis coach has been carrying a chip the size of Joey Dorsey all season, and lately it’s been growing.
For the past couple of weeks, Calipari’s been preaching about his team’s “Us Against the World” mentality, their attitude that nobody gives them their due because they play in a weak conference. He’s played it up in the media and has his team believing they’re a bunch of Davids going into Goliath’s house armed with nothing but Q-tips.
That might be what he wants his players to think, but the truth is his team is very, very good. And he knows it.
Memphis is one win away from setting a Division I NCAA record. His Tigers have yet to trail in the second half in four tournament games. He’s coming off a crushing victory in a game against Texas he wasn’t supposed to win.
His team is no underdog.
Quite on the contrary, Vegas has them at 2.5 point favorites on Saturday.
Not to say the Bruins shouldn’t or will not win this one. I think they will (68-66 in a close one), but, the way the Tigers have been playing, they will be the best team the Bruins have played this season by a healthy margin.
Here are five things that need to happen for UCLA to still be playing on Monday:
1. Keep the big man going: Kevin Love needs to keep doing what he’s been doing all year. In the first four games of the tournament, he’s averaged 21.7 points and 11 rebounds per game. He’s carried the Bruins on his back, both literally and figuratively, to this point and has been nothing but clutch in late-game situations.
Against Memphis, Love will be butting heads with Joey Dorsey in the post. Though Dorsey will occasionally fail to show up on the offensive end, he’s probably the best big man Love has seen this year this side of Brook Lopez and Ryan Anderson.
2. Get production from the perimeter play makers: Collison and Westbrook need to put up some serious points. In Memphis’ close games, including its only loss this season, against Tennessee, the play of the guards was pivotal in keeping the score close.
Over the past few games, Collison has emerged as the best shooter and last-second go-to-guy for the Bruins. He’s been able to both hit key shots at the end of possessions and also drive into the lane and kick out the ball. He can’t afford to pull a D.J. Augustine and go 4-of-18 from the floor against the Tigers. If he does, this one won’t be close.
3. Get Shipp in the game: The player who was once the Bruins’ top scoring threat needs to make something happen. In the tournament so far, Shipp’s role has been noticeably absent, something they can’t afford any longer.
He doesn’t need to put up 20 or even 15 points for the Bruins to advance; he just needs to do his job. That means he’s got to take and sink his 3s when he’s open and occasionally drive and dish to keep the defense honest. The Bruins will need all the offensive weapons they can muster, and Shipp’s play will be pivotal.
4. Keep the pressure on: UCLA will need 40 (maybe 45) minutes of their stifling defense. Memphis is one of the quickest teams in the country. The Bruins will need to slow down the game and limit the number of possessions the Tigers receive. They cannot let the Tigers dictate the tempo of the game and will need to keep the score in the 60s to stay in it.
If the Bruins can hold Memphis to an average of one point per possession or less, the Bruins should be in excellent position. Using some quick math and a calculator, the Bruins will probably need to limit Memphis to under 65 total possessions.
5. Limit turnovers: One stat that has flown under the radar is that UCLA has turned the ball over 47 times in the past three games. They cannot to afford to give away possessions or fast-break points to a Memphis team that can run up a lead very quickly. The Bruins have much more experience in late game pressure situations, especially in March, than their Tiger counterparts and will need to stay smart with the ball all game long.
E-mail Feder at jfeder@media.ucla.edu if your bracket is uglier than the one lonely Bruin fan’s on deadspin.com.