With the end of the 15-month-long U.S.-led occupation of Iraq,
UCLA experts comment on the challenges the new Iraqi government
faces and the role the United States will continue to play in
Iraq.
Two days ahead of schedule, the interim Iraqi government gained
sovereignty on June 28.
Among the new government’s first major actions included
establishing diplomatic relations with the United States and taking
legal custody of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and his 11 top
associates.
The transfer of authority took place early last week at the
request of Dr. Iyad Allawi, Iraq’s interim prime minister, to
impede attacks expected to happen on the planned date for the
transfer, June 30.
“It was to keep the element of surprise,” said
Matthew Baum, a UCLA political science professor.
Insurgents are trying to create chaos, Baum added, to undermine
the U.S. occupation and a secular Iraqi government. The early
transfer occurred to stay one step ahead of these insurgents, he
said.
As one of his first acts as interim prime minister, Allawi
accepted President Bush’s proposal to establish diplomatic
relations between Iraq and the United States.
In 1990, Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait had ended the
diplomatic relationship between the two countries. The new U.S.
ambassador to Iraq, Jon D. Negroponte, arrived hours after the
formal transfer of authority, confirming the re-establishment of
diplomatic ties.
In addition, two days after taking office the interim government
assumed legal, but not physical, custody of Hussein and 11 of his
top associates. All 12 will remain detained by American forces.
Trying Hussein by Iraqis is more legitimate, said Carla Thorson,
a UCLA political science professor, because if done in an
international court, Hussein may have sovereign immunity by virtue
of his position as a former head of state.
Hussein ““ who was found in hiding near Tikrit, Iraq last
December ““ and his codefendants are charged with crimes
against humanity. On July 1, the 12 defendants were arraigned in an
Iraqi court.
In Iraq, under the civil law system in place prior to the
U.S.-led occupation, the judge weighs the evidence against the
accused and if evidence is compelling, the case proceeds to a
trial, Thorson said.
Trial hearings for Hussein and his codefendants, financed by the
United States, are not expected to start for at least several
months. In Iraq, trial hearings are short because most of the
evidence evaluation takes place prior to the trial.
But with 160,000 troops from foreign countries ““
particularly the United States ““ remaining in Iraq, experts
are questioning the degree of authority the new Iraqi government
has.
Since the new government only has minimal control of police
forces and assuring security in the region remains the
responsibility of U.S. forces, the new government does not have
much control, Thorson said.
Though the United Nations formed the interim government
officially, the desires of the United States were fulfilled, Baum
said.
“It’s never going to be a completely legitimate
government “¦ Everyone recognizes it is a by and large
American-installed regime,” he said.
Barry O’Neill, another political science professor, agreed
that the interim government lacks significant power, saying this
government will be perceived as the United States’
“puppet” for several years.
Experts anticipate U.S. forces to remain in Iraq for some time
still, which is both problematic and necessary at the same time,
said political science professor Raju Thomas.
But sudden withdrawal may lead to the fall or overthrow of the
interim government, he added.
“The chances (for democracy) are even at best and probably
not even that good. It’s one thing to argue that you can
establish a democratic political system on paper and its quite
another thing to do it in practice,” Thorson said.
With reports from Bruin wire services.