The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts a possible national economic
recession in 2006, which could negatively affect some UCLA
graduates as they venture into the job market.
Entrepreneurs, business owners, chief executive officers and
various businessmen interested in the “Prosperity for
Mid-Sized Businesses: What’s New and What’s
Important” were present at the a conference held in the
Ackerman Grand Ballroom Tuesday morning.
Professors from the UCLA Anderson School of Management as well
as other guests made economic predictions for the next quarter
during the event.
Though most UCLA students might not be as concerned with how to
finance growth in mid-sized companies, the forecast that was also
presented at the conference has a chance of impacting them
directly.
Professor Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast,
said he sees little growth in the economy in the upcoming
future.
“How long can it last?” Leamer asked, referring to
the state of the economy. He responded that current growth
nationwide will subside.
During the conference he looked at ways that continuous
expansion of the economy may be possible. Some believe that a tax
cut, defense spending, sales of homes, and equipment and software
may boost the economy.
But Leamer said that none of these economic remedies will be
effective, except for exports.
Leamer predicts a recession as of 2006 and UCLA students will be
affected because a recession would create a much weaker job
market.
“Students who graduate this year will have a good job
market. But after this year or next year, there could be a weaker
job market,” he said.
In California specifically, UCLA Anderson Senior Economist
Christopher Thornberg also predicts slow growth .
He added that a poor housing sector will pull down other parts
of the California economy that have been doing well, such as travel
and tourism.
“There will be a slowdown in construction as real estate
cools,” Thornberg said. He went on to explain that the
crowded housing problem will only get worse.
On the bright side, due to a decrease in the worth of the United
States dollar, entertainment production has stayed in California
instead of moving to other parts of the country or even to
different countries. It has stayed cheaper to create entertainment
here than in other places.
Thornberg also said that there has been a steady increase in the
United States production of computers and electronics. This
augmentation may mean more jobs in technology fields.
The predictions made during this Economic Outlook Conference
were taken into account by those in attendance due to its historic
accuracy.
According to the Anderson School at UCLA News Release, the
forecast is “one of the most widely-watched and often-cited
economic outlooks for California and the nation.”
The forecast foresaw the early 1990s economic downturns in
California as well as when the downturns would bounce back.