Last year’s Academy Awards were a bit upsetting ““ pun intended ““ for us here at The Bruin.
After predicting nine out of the 10 categories correctly, the troubled Los Angelenos of “Crash” beat out the gay cowboys of “Brokeback Mountain” for the Best Picture statuette, leaving us without a perfect predictions record yet again.
But though this year’s contest seems a bit more competitive (or at least less obvious) than the past few Academy Awards, we think we have the winners pegged.
Will Best Picture and Best Director really go to the same thrilling mob flick? Will a reality television sensation (affectionately called J-Hud) really win an Oscar? Will Eddie Murphy regret doing “Norbit?” We think so.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: “The Departed”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
No film is clearly the best among the nominees this year, because the film that truly transcended the competition was left out. “Pan’s Labyrinth,” nominated in the Foreign Language film category, but passed over for the big prize, makes everything else look plain. When you thought there were no new stories to be told on film, a young girl’s imagination takes cinema to a place never seen before.
But the statue must go to a nominee. “Babel” is too similar in style and politics to “Crash”; “Letters From Iwo Jima” is also out because it is too soon to honor one of director Clint Eastwood’s films yet again; “Little Miss Sunshine” doesn’t stand a chance; and “The Queen” isn’t loud.
This leaves “The Departed.” Probably the most high profile of the nominees, it was a truly suspenseful movie with sex, violence and the mafia. It’s a great film. They all are great, but none so spectacular as “Pan’s Labyrinth.”
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
Should Win: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
It’s finally your year, Marty. Despite being arguably the most celebrated director of our time, Martin Scorsese has lost five other races for Best Director. “The Departed” looks to end the losing streak, and the academy is likely to repent for the dual sins of snubbing “Raging Bull” and “Goodfellas.”
Of the other candidates, only Clint Eastwood has a chance of bringing home another golden statue for his mantle. He conceived and executed an ambitious two-film project and, as a “message” movie, “Letters from Iwo Jima” has more substance than “The Departed.” Still, mob film is trademark Scorsese: unabashedly violent, profane and ““ above all ““ entertaining.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
Should Win: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
This year’s Best Actor race may seem like less of a sure thing than Best Actress, but the only surprise this category will see is the nomination Ryan Gosling received for “Half Nelson.” Leonardo DiCaprio puts up a good fight with an intriguing performance in “Blood Diamond,” but Whitaker’s performance is loud and fierce, just like the academy likes it.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
Should Win: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
It’s not too often that the women nominated for Best Actress are heard in mainstream media predicting who exactly will beat them to Oscar. But then again, it would be a bit ridiculous to bet against “The Queen’s” Helen Mirren. Mirren’s powerfully understated yet brilliant performance has (rightfully) taken home almost every critic’s award as well as Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild honors.
However, 2006 had a few other outstanding nominees to offer. Previous-winner Judi Dench finally got out of the period garb and into one of the most thrilling roles of the year in “Notes on a Scandal,” and Kate Winslet earned her fifth nomination for her emotional turn in “Little Children.”
Let’s just say Reese should thank her lucky stars “Walk the Line” was released in 2005.
BEST SUPPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Eddie Murphy,
“Dreamgirls”
Murphy deserves kudos not just for his acting (and ability to stand out among a stellar “Dreamgirls” cast), but also his transition from characters such as the Nutty Professor and Dr. Dolittle to the complex, drug-addicted singer James “Thunder” Early. In a breakthrough role, Murphy transcends his comedy comfort zone and enters the world of serious acting.
Up against grade-A nominees such as Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg, Murphy’s prominence as an actor will also work to his benefit (compared to stiff-competition but lesser-known actors Jackie Earle Haley and Djimon Hounsou).
Haley’s chilling performance as a pedophile in “Little Children” and Hounsou’s role as a determined father in “Blood Diamond” were undoubtedly award-worthy as well.
However, “Norbit” aside, Murphy is a longtime Hollywood star who deserves to break the academy’s comedian curse.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel”
Hudson’s performance as a fiery singer was great … for someone who’s never acted in a major motion picture before. But superb vocals aside, her Oscar-worthiness is questionable. The element of surprise (an “American Idol” contestant can sing and act?!) has created more hype than necessary, and in the long run, her skill as an actress is just not up to par with the likes of other more experienced nominees, in particular Japanese actress Rinko Kikuchi.
Unlike Hudson, Kikuchi doesn’t rely on her voice, playing a deaf and mute teenager struggling with her sexuality and the death of her mother. Kikuchi emphasizes the complexity of her character through the power of silence. There is no need for words as her emotion, which is disturbingly captivating, speaks for itself. Now that’s acting.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
With Pedro Almódovar’s “Volver” absent from the list of nominees (Why? Who knows!), Guillermo del Toro’s “Pan’s Labyrinth,” the wildly imaginative Mexican-fantasy/war-film hybrid, has the victory road pretty much cleared of obstacles.
Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck’s “The Lives of Others,” Germany’s entry, does provide some sort of competition, and it’s actually a better film in many respects, asking more complicated moral questions and developing fuller characters. Yet “Pan’s” has that oh-so-elusive quality: it’s unique. Whether this is because of its storytelling acrobatics or its reverie-inducing visuals, the fact is there isn’t really another movie like “Pan’s Labyrinth.”
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Should Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”
The prominent five-year rise of the documentary is no longer anything new, with 14 of the 20 highest-grossing documentaries of all time made after 2001. And the last four Academy Award winners are all among that top tier. So what makes a great documentary? Commercial viability is most certainly in the equation; without an audience a doc fails to make a statement.
This year, Al Gore’s meditation on the tragic state of our environment, “An Inconvenient Truth,” is the only documentary to reach the wider public. And on the way to convincing thousands of Americans that global warming isn’t just a government conspiracy, it’s picked up countless awards. The film might mostly be a taped lecture, far less exciting than this year’s top competitors, “Deliver Us From Evil” and “Iraq in Fragments.” Still, the movie’s message couldn’t be clearer: Even the DVD case is made out of recycled materials.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: “The Departed”
Should Win: “Little Children”
Sadly, we won’t be hearing a Sacha Baron Cohen acceptance speech at this awards show. This is the lone nomination for our beloved “Borat,” and it is unlikely to win. Neither will the fantastic “Children of Men,” which has been criticized for being thin on plot.
Most deserving of the statue is Todd Field and Tom Perrotta’s screenplay for underseen “Little Children.” The film, an adaptation of Perrotta’s novel, will likely suffer from its lack of visibility, giving “The Departed” another trip to the podium. William Monahan’s screenplay, based on Felix Chong and Alan Mak’s screenplay for “Infernal Affairs,” is entertaining and darkly funny, a twisting story full of deception and sharp one-liners.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: “Little Miss Sunshine”
Should Win: “The Queen”
The original-screenplay category this year will be a consolation prize for a movie that’s just happy to be here. “Little Miss Sunshine” will not, and should not, win Best Picture; the nomination exaggerates its merits, especially in a year of tough competition. But it does have a great script: funny, touching and occasionally unpredictable. “Little Miss Sunshine” deserves some recognition and the academy will want to give something to this little movie that made it big.
Unfortunately, giving this prize to appease one movie means shutting out the truly remarkable. “The Queen” portrays a highly over-publicized scandal in a completely new light. Thought-provoking with political relevance, it’s unfortunately too small, too restrained and overall too British to be a real contender.
Compiled by Devon Dickau, Amy Crocker, Paige Parker, Guido Pellegrini, Teddy Phuong and Kate Stanhope.