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It’s too early to panic in fantasy baseball, but you
should always be ready to dump a player who is not performing and
shows no signs of turning it around.
But who is simply having a bad April and who is going to
continue on with a bad May, June, July, etc?
Look no further than the strikeout-to-walk ratio for the true
indicator of a player’s performance. Want proof? Barry Bonds
walked 177 times while striking out 93 times. This season he has
seven walks to zero strikeouts.
Now, I do agree, Bonds is an extreme example. So let’s
look at a fairer comparison: Ryan Klesko and Brian Jordan.
It drives me crazy when people praise Jordan. Sure he had 25
homers and batted .295 last season, but he also had a 88/31 K/BB
ratio. Such disparity breeds inconsistency, so it’s no
surprise that the year before he hit .264 with only 17 homers while
maintaining a putrid 80/38 ratio.
Klesko, on the other hand, is a model of consistency. He batted
.286 with 30 homers last season and sported a 89/88 ratio. In 2000,
he batted .283 with 26 homers and a 81/91 ratio.
The Klesko/Jordan comparison is the reason batters who walk well
compared to their strikeouts can be trusted to keep a higher level
of performance. There are exceptions to the rule (Alfonso Soriano
for example), but for the most part, this ratio is a great
indicator.
Let’s apply some of that theory to the current 2002
season, and look at ten players …
The Good
“¢bull; OF ““ Garret Anderson, Angels
Here’s one hitter who has never seen the need for walks.
With ratios of 100/27 last season and 87/24 the year before, his
slow start shouldn’t surprise many. But Anderson did bat .289
with 28 homers last season to follow his .286, 35 homer 2000
campaign. This year he’s only hit .194 with no homers and one
RBI, but he has three walks to five Ks. Don’t worry, he
hasn’t learned how to walk. Two of the three walks were
intentional. But his strikeouts are in line with his career
average, so he’ll be fine.
“¢bull; 3B ““ Adrian Beltre, Dodgers
Could he be ready for the perennial breakthrough season? So far
the .217 average, zero homers and one RBI say no. But the six walks
to three strikeouts indicate a sudden explosion is not too far
away.
“¢bull; OF ““ Adrian Brown, Pirates
Two years ago he hit .315 with 13 steals in just over 300
at-bats. Shoulder trouble made everyone forget about him last
season, and though he’s only hitting .200 thus far, the five
walks to two strikeouts hint that he’ll be a fine leadoff
hitter in 2002.
“¢bull; OF ““ Adam Dunn, Reds
Don’t worry, this guy is not a fluke. Sure he’s only
hitting .167 and has yet to homer in eight games, but the seven
walks to ten strikeouts mean it’s just a matter of time
before we see a four-homer week from him.
The Bad
“¢bull; SS ““ Jose Hernandez, Brewers
This guy struck out 185 times last season, and already has 13
more whiffs in only eight games. To make things worse, he only has
one walk. You’re treading into dangerous territory if you
expect consistency from this guy.
“¢bull; OF ““ Geoff Jenkins, Brewers
Surprise, surprise. Another Brewer makes the list. Like
Anderson, he’s never been known to walk much (120/36 last
season, 135/33 the year before). But unlike with Anderson, his long
swing and this year’s 13/1 ratio fail to instill a lot of
confidence.
“¢bull; OF ““ Terrence Long, A’s
This guy usually walks once for every two strikeouts, so his
.182 average and zero homers could be attributed to the increased
discrepancy in his ratio (11 strikeouts to two walks). Still too
early to tell if it’s a fluke or something to be worried
about.
“¢bull; 2B ““ Jose Ortiz, Rockies
A free swinger who walked 14 times to 36 strikeouts last year,
Ortiz has yet to walk this year and already has five strikeouts to
his credit. A little patience and more games at Coors would help
bring up that .227 average.
The Ugly
“¢bull; OF ““ Carl Everett, Rangers
Two years ago he had a 113/52 ratio, along with 34 homers and a
.300 average. Last season he dropped to 104/27, and his numbers
also dropped to 14 homers and a .257 average. This season he has 10
strikeouts to a single walk, along with a .129 average and a seat
waiting for him on most fantasy benches.
“¢bull; 1B ““ David Segui, Orioles
Usually a reliable, professional hitter, Segui hit .300 each of
the past three seasons with solid K/BB ratios. This year he has
four singles in 28 at-bats for a .167 average, to go along with six
strikeouts and zero walks. There must be something physically wrong
with this guy.