Let’s get ready to rumble! In this corner, the
5-foot-3-inch potbellied Stalinist, the peevish powerhouse of
Pyongong, Kim Jong Il. And in the other corner, the man who packs
such a hard punch, you’ll think you’re seeing double
(which you are ““ his body doubles follow him everywhere), the
belligerent butcher of Baghdad, Saddam Hussein.
Today’s fight is a contest to see who racks up more
“bad boy” points on referee George W. Bush’s
Axis-of-Evil-Meter. Both these men and their respective rogue
nations have extensive experience in causing trouble, but if I had
to bet the farm, I’d say Hussein and Iraq are the more
dangerous duo.
Iraq is a greater threat to the United States. Sure, both
countries have a lot in common: they are feverishly chasing weapons
of mass destruction in defiance of U.N. decree, their leaders have
dangerous delusions of grandeur, and both countries hate American
policy as much as the French hate American tourists. But the
hazardous motivations behind Iraq’s leadership and the
geographic location of each country make Iraq a more formidable
threat than North Korea.
If we could sit Hussein down on the psychiatrist’s couch,
what would we find? Well, Christopher Dickey, a columnist for
Newsweek got it right when he wrote, “Saddam Hussein knows
what he wants: Domination of the Arab world with all its oil.
Elimination of Israel. Vengeance on the United States. His record
is so clear on all these points that only those who refuse to see
could be blind to the danger he presents to Americans and their
vital interests.”
Hussein doesn’t quite see the world or his role
rationally. His biographers have said he sees himself as the
unifier of the Arab world. Hussein thinks he is a legendary hero
who will crush the West and rule as the Islamic military leader of
the world, and he apparently has no problem sacrificing the lives
of innocent Iraqis to achieve this goal.
On the other hand, North Korea knows when to shut up and play by
the rules. In 1994, when the United States faced a similar problem
with North Korea, the Clinton administration brokered a deal called
the Agreed Framework. The terms of this deal said North Korea would
lock up its plutonium if the United States provided modern power
plant technology. Today, though North Korea has expelled weapons
inspectors and disregarded the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,
they remain compliant with the Agreed Framework.
The North Koreans are not looking for war, nor are they
motivated by dreams of world domination. They want more power and
credibility on the world stage and use threats to achieve their
goals. Iraq is a greater danger because while North Korea will use
nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, Iraq might actually use
nuclear weapons in battle.
Iraq is also a greater threat because they are in the middle of
the world’s most unstable region. Unfortunately, the Middle
East has a history of violence. The Palestinian suicide bombers,
the Sept. 11 2001 hijackers of Saudi Arabia and Iran’s known
hatred toward the United States make the Middle East an unfriendly
region to the United States and her allies. Iraq doesn’t need
long range missiles to attack U.S. allies ““ it only needs to
reach Israel, or give a bomb to terrorists who would like to strike
against the United States. As U.S. Council of Foreign Relations
member Rachel Bronson said in the same Newsweek column, “We
will have to deal with Saddam one way or the other. I’d
rather do it when he can’t destroy entire cities in this
volatile region.”
North Korea, in an entirely different part of the globe, is an
entirely different story. China, Russia and Japan all serve as
stabilizers in the region, thus preventing any wild swings in the
balance of power ““ these countries are interested in good
relations with North Korea and have all shown a strong inclination
toward peace. In fact, until the recent crisis erupted, North and
South Korea, traditionally bitter enemies, had begun a rare round
of friendly talks which could have led to a reconciliation of
sorts. If North Korea becomes an ally to U.S. friends, then the
United States would have a political cover against an attack.
So, after a 12-round slugfest, Iraq scores much higher on the
Axis-of-Evil-Meter than North Korea. Iraq is the greater of two
evils, but hopefully President Bush will not let either problem get
out of hand.
Ludlow is a second-year political science student. E-mail him at
dludlow@media.ucla.edu.