North Korea is a greater threat to the United States than
Iraq.
Until last October, the world was focused on Iraq and the lunacy
of Saddam Hussein. Then came the bombshell: North Korea
blatantly admitted to defying the 1994 agreement to abandon its
nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid from the United States,
Japan and South Korea. Since then, North Korea has expelled the
last two international nuclear monitors from the country. And just
last Friday, North Korea announced their plan to pull out of the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
According to the CIA, North Korea has enough plutonium for two
or three nuclear warheads, and there is a good chance they have
already been built. Iraq, on the other hand, does not have North
Korea’s nuclear firepower, and it is under scrutiny from the
United Nations to prevent its attainment of further nuclear
capabilities.
North Korea is also believed to possess 5,000 tons of chemical
and biological weapons that they have been working on for decades.
They are also allegedly developing an intercontinental ballistic
missile that could reach the United States. With more testing,
North Korea may be able to target the United States with a nuclear
warhead in a few years.
Because Iraq apparently has no weapons of mass destruction (as
seen in the latest U.N. inspections) and no ability to help other
nations in developing nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, it
poses a lesser threat to its neighbors and the rest of the world.
But the greatest danger from North Korea is the threat of nuclear
proliferation. If North Korea becomes an acknowledged nuclear
power, then U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan, could follow suit.
Nuclear proliferation would drastically change the relationship
between China and Japan, which could precipitate a nuclear arms
race between two of the world’s most powerful countries.
What’s more, China, Japan and South Korea all have the
skills to produce nuclear weapons in a relatively short period of
time. A shift in the East Asian balance of power could put the
United States in severe jeopardy for it would make the probability
of an East Asian nuclear war greater than ever before. Furthermore,
it has the chance of demoting the United States as the
world’s greatest superpower to the number two position. A
similar case could be made for Iraq and the Middle East, but it
would be much harder for Middle Eastern countries to construct or
acquire nuclear weapons because of the United Nation’s
watchdog responsibilities. If Iraq decided to advance with its
weapons programs, it would face an antagonizing international
community and the almost certain use of force.
North Korea also has a more powerful military than Iraq, with
forces said to be the world’s fourth largest deployed just
across the border to South Korea where 37,000 American soldiers
reside. If North Korea was to attack, it could take out thousands
of South Korean and U.S. troops in a matter of hours.
Iraq’s forces are feeble and under equipped. Some pundits
have claimed Hussein is more dangerous because he has attacked his
neighbors in the past, and North Korea has not. However, I
don’t think that logic is sound, especially since a military
analyst close to Kim Jong Il, the nation’s leader, has been
quoted by a British newspaper as saying, “the only way to
bring the United States to the negotiation table is to be prepared
for suicidal action.”
Also, Kim has repeatedly called Washington’s bluff,
dismissing its warnings and raising the stakes, such as opening the
reprocessing plant and expelling inspectors after the United States
and its allies halted fuel deliveries to them. On Jan. 10,
Ambassador Pak Gil Yon accused Washington of breaking all its
commitments, and that North Korea is being left with no choice but
to take action. If that isn’t a serious threat, then I
don’t know what is.
Finally, with the defeat Iraq suffered during the Gulf War,
economic sanctions, and periodic attacks, the United States has
effectively contained Iraq for more than a decade. The United
States can defer its problems with Iraq because the United Nations
can effectively keep an eye on Iraq. Iraq is not capable of hurting
the United States like North Korea can. And if President Bush
continues to treat Iraq as the greater threat, the threat from
North Korea may become all too real.
Shasha is a fourth-year psychology student. E-mail her at
rshasha@media.ucla.edu.