When Richard Anderson was growing up, nuclear war between the Soviet Union and the United States seemed inevitable.
“At the dinner table we would discuss whether my father should buy a nuclear bomb shelter to put in our backyard,” he said.
Anderson, a professor of political science at UCLA, said that relations between the United States and Russia have changed since the end of the Cold War. Now, the two nations are displaying nuclear cooperation rather than antagonism.
In fact, a nuclear arms treaty signed last week by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev may signal a new era of peace and cooperation for the United States and Russia.
The long-awaited New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, was signed in Prague on April 8. The treaty renews and strengthens the principles of arms reduction set forth in START I, which expired in December, as well as START II and the Treaty of Moscow.
The New START seeks to limit nuclear arms even more than its predecessors, by limiting the number of operationally deployed warheads to 1,550, a 30 percent decrease from the Moscow Treaty of 2002. It will also reduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missile launchers and submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers to 800. These goals must be reached within seven years.
If the treaty is ratified by the United States Senate and the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, it will stay in effect for 10 years, with an opportunity for a five-year renewal.
Experts in the field of US-Russian relations say the new treaty is a good sign.
“I think it’s obviously a step forward,” said UCLA political science Professor Daniel Treisman. “It’s very positive that the U.S. and Russia are able to reach formal agreements.”
Treisman, whose work focuses on the politics and political economy of Russia, said Russian popular opinion of the United States has fluctuated in the years since the end of the Cold War.
He said the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe and the use of military force in Iraq were unpopular to Russians. While the new treaty may improve public opinion of the United States, the impact will be minor given the long history of Russian disgruntlement with American foreign policy.
After working with arms control matters in the Central Intelligence Agency and the United States Congress, Anderson said he learned one very important lesson.
“Nuclear weapons are not dangerous,” he said.
He said he agreed with former Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf’s claim that only an insane person would start a war with nuclear weapons and that such an occurrence would be highly unlikely.
“I don’t think (the treaty) makes a difference to issues of war and peace except that it tends to relieve public anxiety,” he said.
Albert Carnesale, a public policy professor and former chancellor of UCLA, said one of the most significant attributes of this new treaty is its re-institution of the verification regime. This institution fosters transparency and reduces uncertainties by ensuring that each side is adhering properly to treaty provisions.
One of the issues raised by the signing of the New START is the question of imposing sanctions on Iran to restrain its nuclear program. Although Russia has indicated to the United Nations that it may support such sanctions, no official pronouncements have been made on the topic.
According to Carnesale, the United States will need to convince not only Russia but also China, Britain and France to support sanctions if it plans to impede Iran’s nuclear program.
“In order for sanctions to be effective by and large they must be imposed by the major players or else it doesn’t work,” he said.
In May, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference will be held at the United Nations headquarters in New York. Carnesale said the New START will be important there because it will demonstrate that the United States is continuing to make progress in reducing its nuclear arsenal.
“The reason it’s important in general in non-proliferation is at least you can say we’re headed in the right direction,” he said. “We’re working on it, guys.