CORVALLIS, Ore. “”mdash; The UCLA basketball team’s 62-52 victory at Oregon State on Saturday closed the first half of the Pac-10 conference season. Coach Ben Howland and his players seemed a bit relieved to end this road trip on a positive note after a crushing overtime loss at Oregon on Thursday.
The Bruins have now faced all nine of their conference opponents; they stand at 5-4 in the league, and 10-11 overall. There’s a lot of uncertainty about their postseason chances and their long-term future.
It feels like a good time for a State of the Union speech or, in this case, a State of UCLA Basketball column.
The first thing to remember is that there’s a big disconnect between the way fans follow college basketball and the realities of the players and coaches’ daily grind. No one on the team would publicly discuss this stuff ““ they’re too focused on preparing for each upcoming opponent.
All four players I spoke to after the Oregon State game said the same thing: “One game at a time.”
And would Howland talk to his team about the postseason?
“No, not at all. We talk about our next game,” he said.
But still, fans can’t help but wonder. They want to know if they should just try to forget about the NCAA tournament this year. They want to know if this season is a lost cause.
After following the Bruins through this Oregon road trip, my answer is, no, not yet.
Despite their awful out-of-conference record and the abysmal RPI rating that comes with it, I think the Bruins are going to improve a lot in these next five weeks. If they do, they’ll have a reasonable chance to compete for a Pac-10 tournament title and secure the magical automatic NCAA tournament bid that comes with it.
I make this bold prediction because Howland’s team is playing a much different brand of basketball than it did in those listless defeats of November and December. The zone defense that he instituted in mid-January has changed pretty much everything.
The zone is much easier for the inexperienced players on the UCLA team who haven’t mastered all the intricacies of Howland’s man-to-man scheme. It is giving the youngest, most talented players on the team a lot more opportunities.
Reeves Nelson is the one young player who’s really emerged since UCLA switched to the zone. The burly freshman is much more comfortable and much more effective now. He tallied his first double-double Saturday, and he’s averaging eight rebounds per game since UCLA made the switch.
The zone has also helped freshman Tyler Honeycutt, who’s moved into the Bruins’ starting lineup. Honeycutt is probably the sharpest passer on this UCLA team and one of its best rebounders. He helps the Bruins whenever he’s on the floor.
UCLA has won three of its four games since its switch to the 2-3 zone, allowing only 61 points per game. Players now think they could be a factor in the race for the Pac-10 regular season title.
“It feels like (every team) is right around the same mark,” senior Michael Roll said.
With Arizona’s upset win over California on Sunday, those two teams moved into a tie for first place at 6-3 in conference. At 5-4, the Bruins are just one game behind.
“This is going to be a big week,” Roll said.
The only guaranteed route to the NCAA tournament for the Bruins is the conference tournament. Even if they improve markedly in these last nine games, they’ll probably need to win the conference tournament to get an NCAA bid.
Point guard Jerime Anderson said that he feels like UCLA winning the Pac-10 tournament is something very possible. Guard Malcolm Lee also said he could envision the team winning the conference tournament.
UCLA will need to build momentum in these next five weekends to position itself to make that type of run. Postseason basketball is a different challenge, because teams have much less time to prepare. Conference tournaments force teams to play on consecutive days. And remember, the Bruins really flopped in that type of format earlier this season at the 76 Classic in Anaheim, where they lost three consecutive games.
If the Bruins fall short of a Pac-10 tournament title, it seems almost impossible that they would receive an at-large bid.
I asked a team spokesman about the possibility of the Bruins playing in the National Invitation Tournament (the second-fiddle event for teams that miss out on the Big Dance), and he said the decision on whether UCLA would accept a bid to the NIT would be up to athletic director Dan Guerrero.
So really, at this point, there’s no way to foresee the Bruins’ fate. The team’s play in this most recent trip to Oregon is encouraging. Despite delivering a lot of duds this year, the Bruins may still have some life left.
For now, keep an eye on the way Nelson and Honeycutt improve, get used to the zone defense, and just try to remember what Lee said to me after this latest win.
“The past is the past.”
E-mail Allen at sallen@media.ucla.edu.