The countdown to the 2008 presidential election began many months ago, but factors that extend decades into the past could have bearing on how the present presidential hopefuls will fare.
Some believe the candidates fit into a spectrum of political time, and as they prepare for Nov. 4, they should be mindful of where they fit in that spectrum and how their location could potentially affect them.
Sean Campbell, a third-year history student, said he believes there seems to be a pendulum of political time when the current presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama are affected by the popularity and reputation of past presidents.
He said he believes the candidates try to either tie themselves to or distance themselves from past presidents based on their popularity while they were in office.
“They obviously want to be the heirs of successful administrations,” he said.
Sesilya Saraydarian, a third-year political science student, said the candidates try to connect their opponents with previous unpopular presidents of the same party in campaign advertisements.
“In their negative ads, Democrats are saying that McCain is another Bush and Republicans are saying that Obama is another Jimmy Carter, another disaster waiting to happen,” she said.
Justin Clune, a fourth-year political science, history and Russian studies student, said past and present policies on the economy in particular have a very large impact on the election and the political climate.
“Right now people are looking at the economic policies of the presidents who have been economically successful to see how these match up with the current candidates’ policies,” he said. “Ninety percent of the presidential election is determined by the economy.”
Henry Brady, professor of political science and public policy at UC Berkeley, said he believes the importance of the economy is demonstrated by the fact that John McCain began to slip in the national polls just when the economy started failing.
“People are just really worried that it was the Republicans that got us in this situation, and they have a hard time believing that John McCain, who is a Republican, is going to get us out of this situation,” he said. “Living in the shadow of George W. Bush, a deeply unpopular president, is very difficult for John McCain.”
Brady said Obama, on the other hand, is having a much easier time because he has stated that the Democratic Party can impact the economy positively.
He said he believes Obama can be compared to President John F. Kennedy, both in terms of charisma and his call for change.
“Kennedy’s famous phrase of “˜let’s get this country moving again’ is very similar to Obama’s “˜change you can believe in’ phrase,” Brady said. “Both are reflective of trying to push for change.”
Brady said Obama has also been compared with President Franklin D. Roosevelt. He said he believes the comparisons between Obama and Roosevelt and the current economic crisis and the Great Depression particularly resonate in older voters’ minds.
These voters might even compare McCain to President Herbert Hoover, who argued that taxes should be cut and a very conservative Republican stance on the economy should be taken, Brady said.
Brady said comparisons between past presidents’ and present candidates’ foreign policy stances also impact the election.
In particular, John McCain has tried to compare himself to President Dwight Eisenhower, Brady said.
“I think McCain is trying to do what Eisenhower was trying to do in 1952 when we were enmeshed in the Korean War and he said he would get us out of Korea,” he said. “He’s also trying to play the card of a military war hero.”
But Brady said he doesn’t believe McCain has the same amount of credibility as Eisenhower did.
“Poor John McCain has been handicapped,” Brady said. “He hasn’t been able to situate himself in the mind and the memories of the American public.”
Campbell said he believes this disadvantage is exacerbated by the fact that McCain is contending for the presidency at a moment in political time when his party is unpopular.
“It seems to be a lost cause because Obama successfully ties McCain to the Republican establishment and to George Bush and the past 8 years,” Campbell said.
But some students believe McCain and President Bush can’t necessarily be tied together.
Clune said there is a model that allows one to predict how popular a candidate will be based on how the economy was during the presidential election term before he or she runs for office.
He said he believes this model will not be a good predictor for this election, and the Democrats and Republicans have switched in terms of economic policy in the last couple of decades.
Clune said that President Bill Clinton took a typically Republican view of spending and employed the principles of a balanced budget, and Bush took a more typically Democratic approach to the economy and increased spending.
Clune said he believes McCain has tied himself to President Ronald Reagan and is taking a much more conservative stance on the economy.
He said the Reagan era transformed the Republican party into being more conservative about the economy and McCain is trying to convey that he is going back to the economics of Reagan to appeal to Republicans who think he is too moderate.
“Bush and McCain have such different approaches to the economy, that model is not very predictive now because voters can see that they’re different,” he said.
Saraydarian said she believes Reagan is considered the greatest Republican president of all time, and McCain is trying to promote himself among Republican voters by comparing himself to Reagan.
“He has said Reagan is a hero,” she said.
Campbell said he believes social issues also have a bearing on political time and comparing the current candidates with past presidents.
He said he believes the issue of same-sex marriage is another current hot topic and is influential because the future president will have the power to appoint Supreme Court justices who can decide whether same-sex marriage is constitutional.
Campbell said he believes people who support same-sex marriage might vote for Democrats because the issue of marriage rights can be compared to the issue of desegregation in the 1950s and 1960s.
“Desegregation began with a Democratic president, and so people who are pro-gay marriage might vote for a Democrat,” he said.
But Saraydarian said she believes this election will be determined less by the impact of past presidential elections and more on geography and individual states’ political identities.
“It has to do with whether a state is a red state or a blue state,” she said. “People are often reluctant to shake that off and change their political identity just because of one president.”
Campbell said that though the popularity of past presidents will affect how the candidates will fare in the election, it’s ultimately up to them and their actions to determine how popular one of the candidates will be as president.