California and national business leaders met in Irvine Monday morning to hear presentations from the UCLA Anderson School of Business about the economy of Southern California.
The main focus of the event was on Orange County’s economy, but they also covered the national and state economies.
The report for the state and the nation carried some unpleasant news about the U.S. economy.
“The U.S. and state economies will move in tandem over the next few years, with income and employment deteriorating further before the housing market hits bottom,” said UCLA Spokesperson Hilary Rehder.
Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist with the Anderson School, said that California would be going through a slow growth because people are reluctant to spend money while the future of the economy is unresolved.
As far as the real estate and mortgage crisis, the report stated that the real estate sector will begin its recovery next year.
According to the report, housing sales will pick up later in 2009 and prices would then stabilize during the summer; labor markets will continue to weaken and adjust over the next six months, but employment will begin to rise slightly in 2009.
Higher-paying jobs in several sectors will “contribute to positive growth in average salaries,” Rehder said.
According to the report, “Inflation in Southern California declines in 2009 and 2010. The absence of housing-price appreciation, a slowdown in rental-rate appreciation, weaker U.S. economic growth and declining energy prices will relieve pressure on the general price level, both regionally and nationwide.”
Questions the Anderson Forecast answered consisted of an outlook on the national and state economies, answering concerns such as, “Is this all a prelude to a deep recession?”
The day continued with Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast, giving a basic outlook specifically for Orange County.
He discussed when housing would rebound and the extent of damage to other sectors for the county.
Matt Padilla, Orange County Register journalist & co-author of “Chain of Blame,” went on to discuss how much of the problem rests on the shoulders of Wall Street.
Wrapping up the day, Patrick Lawler, chief economist and associate director of the FHFA (conservator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae), said he gave insight on the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae conservatorship and discussed the question of how restructuring is going to affect home finance in the short and long term.
The meeting was then adjourned shortly before 11 a.m.
The UCLA Anderson School of Business has been creating the Anderson Forecast for 50 years.
It is one of the most widely followed economic outlooks for California as well as the nation, and the quarterly conferences draw in business, academic and government decision-makers from all over California and the United States.
The next Forecast will be held in December, but it will be for members only.