Some fights can’t be won.
University of California Regent Ward Connerly is learning this
firsthand. The author of Proposition 54, which, if approved, would
prohibit the state from collecting racial data, Connerly has
focused much of his life on expunging society of its racial
distinctions.
After spearheading Proposition 209, which ended racial
consideration in California’s public employment and education
““ approved by voters in 1996 ““ Connerly has sought to
further erase racial lines by drafting and promoting Proposition
54. But earlier this month, Connerly all but conceded defeat.
The initiative’s demise: Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante pledged
nearly $4 million toward advertisements in which he urges voters to
oppose it.
“I’m never throwing in the towel. But I’ve
been around the block. There is no way we can match that,”
Connerly told the Los Angeles Times after being informed of
Bustamante’s pledge.
To date, public support of Proposition 54 has largely been
limited to Connerly. Following several months of being blasted from
coast to coast ““ both Gov. Gray Davis and presidential
hopeful and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean have attacked the
initiative ““ Bustamante’s money may have dealt the
final blow to an already struggling initiative.
Throughout the history of Proposition 54 ““ also known as
the Racial Privacy Initiative ““ public support has been
dwindling.
In July, the Field Poll, a non-partisan California poll,
reported 48 percent of expected voters supported Proposition 54
while 33 percent opposed it. But earlier this month the Field Poll
reported that public support had fallen significantly, with 40
percent of respondents saying they would vote
“yes.”
When Tom Wood, co-author of Proposition 209, saw the initial
survey findings for Proposition 54, he said he knew it was
doomed.
“You need to start out with very high numbers, because
that number is going to fall,” he said.
And that number has fallen. Public support has decreased as
public awareness has increased. In July, 25 percent of Californians
said they understood the initiative’s language and intent.
That number more than doubled by the middle of September.
As elections draw near, media coverage increases, and voters
tend to pay more attention to specific issues. In an election that
only asks its voters to make three other choices ““ whether to
recall Davis, who should replace Davis, and whether they support
Proposition 54 ““ much attention has been given to Proposition
54.
But Lynn Vavreck, an assistant political science professor,
cautioned against taking these findings at face value, saying
public opinion fluctuates as an election draws nearer since people
start to think about issues more seriously.
“Answering a public opinion poll isn’t the same
thing as going into a booth and voting,” Vavreck said.
When the Racial Privacy Initiative originally qualified for the
next statewide election, its supporters were preparing for the
March 2004 ballot. Connerly has said the recall election has taken
the legs out from under Proposition 54 by disrupting its
fund-raising timetable.
But last week the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals gave
Connerly and his supporters a second chance when it ruled to delay
the recall election until six California counties updated their
ballot procedures.
The delay’s duration is indefinite, but the three-judge
panel said that in the interest of democracy, Davis’ fate
could wait, possibly until the March 2004 statewide election. This
would bring Proposition 54 full circle in its recall journey.
Political strategist Allan Hoffenblum said postponing the recall
election would help its passage because it would give Connerly time
to raise money to combat Bustamante and the opposition.
But Richard Maullin, a partner in the public opinion research
center Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates, said Proposition
54 could campaign indefinitely without passing because there are
too many people concerned with the amount of racial information
that could be lost.
“Proposition 54 is going to lose no matter what,” he
said.
When Proposition 54 was added to the recall ballot, some
analysts thought the recall might lure more conservatives out to
vote, which would have benefited Proposition 54 since its support
is largest among conservatives. But other factors have harmed the
road to that ““ namely the lack of support by gubernatorial
candidates.
Republican Tom McClintock is the only frontrunner in the race
for the governorship who has publicly supported Proposition 54.
And though the California GOP formally endorsed Proposition 54
in February, it has not contributed any money to its campaign.
“The California Republican Party has very limited
resources,” said GOP spokesman Mike Wintemute.
“Don’t ever look at the money we spend on an initiative
as a measure of the party’s support.”
Diane Schachterle, spokeswoman for the American Civil Rights
Coalition, which supports Proposition 54, said she would not
speculate on how a recall postponement would affect Proposition
54’s passage.
“We are going to just keep fighting the fight,” she
said.
With reports from Charles Proctor, Bruin Senior
Staff.