It’s baseball season.
So what if the Final Four takes place this weekend and the NBA
playoffs start later this month?
It’s baseball season now.
For baseball fans, this is one of the most exciting times of the
year. The Expos and Royals are in first place. The Braves and
Mariners are in last.
It’s April. And that means one thing: The Stat Geek writes
his MLB preview column.
I will answer more than just who’s going to the World
Series. I will answer pressing questions like: Will the Tigers lose
120 games? Will Barry Bonds hit .400? When, not if, will Lou
Piniella go absolutely insane?
Here’s a league-by-league, division-by-division look
starting with the American League (National League on Monday for
those dying for a breakdown of the Brewers’ playoff
chances):
American League
The AL is a perfect reflection of what is wrong with baseball,
with the exception of the Angels. Take the world champs away, and
you have little parity in the AL. Teams are good for several years
straight, then go away for several years. The Yankees, of course,
are always good. But New York, Boston, Oakland and Seattle have all
been good for the last four years and figure to be good again this
year. Detroit, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore have been bad
for the last four years and figure to be bad again this year.
Interleague play stats between the AL and NL are always very
close to 50-50. But the AL always accounts for the teams with the
most and the least wins. The AL is top and bottom-heavy. The
NL’s teams are more centered towards the middle.
Still, the AL has many compelling stories.
AL West
I start with by far the best division. This division boasts a
team that won 103 games last year (A’s), the defending World
Series champions (Angels), a team that won 116 games two years ago
(Mariners), and a team with the best offense in baseball
(Rangers).
The A’s have only gotten better.
They’ve added Erubiel Durazo to an already great lineup.
And don’t be fooled by Ted Lilly’s 5-7 record last
year. His ERA was 3.69, and he was injured at times. He’s
healthy now.
The Angels have kept the same roster, losing only backup
outfielders Orlando Palmeiro, Alex Ochoa and seldom-used reliever
Dennis Cook. World Series studs Francisco Rodriguez and John Lackey
join the team for an entire season.
Their stats, if you project last season’s on to a full
season of work:
Rodriguez: 70 IP, 0.00 ERA
Lackey: 17-8, 3.66 ERA, 130 K
Yes, I’m sure Frankie will allow a run. Or maybe even
two.
The Mariners did add Randy Winn, but they have more questions
than answers. Who will start for them after Freddie Garcia, Jamie
Moyer and Joel Piniero? Will Garcia (4.39 ERA last year compared to
3.05 in 2001) or Jeff Cirillo (.629 OPS in 2002, .837 in 2001)
rebound or even have a good season again? But as always, their team
will be solid, especially their bullpen. They’ll stay
competitive, but don’t have enough to surpass the A’s
or even the Angels.
Meanwhile, Ismael Valdes is the Rangers’ ace. Yes, he
really is. Stop laughing.
The Rangers may have the best offense in the league, but they
have the worst pitching also. A pitcher whose highest win total in
the last four years is nine (and on teams with good offenses
““ Texas, Seattle, Anaheim, Los Angeles) shouldn’t be
your ace. Valdes could be a solid fourth or fifth starter on a
decent team. But he shouldn’t be your ace.
After Valdes comes Chan Ho
“I-can’t-win-outside-of-Dodger-Stadium-and-especially-not-at-Pac
Bell” Park.
Take a look at this:
2001, Dodger Stadium: 2.36 ERA
2001, anywhere else: 4.83 ERA
2002, anywhere else: 5.75 ERA
I can’t explain it either.
After Park comes John Thomson, Colby Lewis and C.J. Nitkowski.
Yikes. The Rangers should pray for rain every day.
AL Central
The real race in this division isn’t for first, even
though it should be a good one between Minnesota and Chicago. The
real race in this division is for last.
The Tigers and Royals are horrible. The two teams combined for
206 losses last year and have both gotten worse.
Detroit lost its two best hitters in Rob Fick and Randall Simon,
it and lost its best pitcher in Jeff Weaver.
Kansas City lost its only good pitcher in Paul Byrd, who had 17
of the Royals’ 62 wins, and its second best starter in Jeff
Suppan (9 wins). No starter on the Royals’ current rotation
had more than four wins last season.
Will the Royals (100 losses in 2002) challenge the 1962
Mets’ modern-day record of 120 losses? It’s highly
doubtful. But the Tigers (106 losses) can.
Detroit’s rotation includes a guy (Jeremy Bonderman) that
pitched in Class A last year. The other four pitchers had a
combined 14 wins in 2002.
Not one player in the Tigers infield hit above .243 last
year.
52-110 is a realistic possibility for the Tigers. But imagine
the hype around going for 120. This needs to happen.
Back to the top of the division. The White Sox actually had a
better run differential (+58) than the Twins last season (+56).
Still, Chicago finished 13 games out of first place.
Expect a much closer race this year, but Minnesota will still
come out on top.
The White Sox did add Bartolo Colon, who along with Mark
Buehrle, will form a solid one-two punch. But the Twins signed
Kenny Rogers, giving them extra pitching depth, and Mike
“Mark-Grace-wants-to-be-me” Fetters, helping their
bullpen.
Plus, the Twins are one of those teams that just puts it all
together and wins games, like a mini-version of the Angels. The
White Sox live and die with the homer.
Neither team will probably compete for the wild card, as New
York, Oakland, Anaheim and Boston are just too good.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot about Cleveland. Watch for them in
2005. Until then, they’ll suffer in mediocrity/inferiority.
With all the young players, 35-year old shortstop Omar Vizquel must
feel out of place. Even his manager (Eric Wedge) is only 34.
AL East
The final standings have looked exactly the same in this
division for the last five years: New York, Boston, Toronto,
Baltimore, then Tampa Bay.
And I have no reason to believe it will change this year.
The Yankees, who haven’t won a World Series since 2000
(poor babies), went crazy over the season, signing Hideki Matsui
(the best power hitter in Japan since Saddaru Oh), Jose Contreras
(the best pitcher to come out of Cuba), Jon Lieber (an All-Star
caliber pitcher who may not pitch this year due to injury), Chris
Hammond (0.95 ERA last year), Juan Acevedo (Detroit’s closer
in 2002), and Todd Zeile (87 RBI last year on the Yankees’
bench).
They didn’t need most of these players. But they signed
them anyway, just in case. That’s what the Yankees do, they
of the payroll $50 million higher than any other team.
I feel really sorry for them after Derek Jeter’s injury.
They’ll probably trade for Miguel Tejada.
The Red Sox did go out and sign Kevin Millar, Jeremy Giambi,
David Ortiz and Ramiro Mendoza, but didn’t pull the trigger
on what could’ve helped them beat the Yankees ““ a deal
for Bartolo Colon. Why? They apparently like Casey Fossum better
than a 20-game winner. Imagine what a trio Colon, Pedro Martinez
and Derek Lowe could’ve been. But that’s the Red Sox.
Always playing second fiddle to the Yankees.
The Blue Jays have some talent and will probably end up with a
winning record. Halladay is as good as Barry Zito, and Vernon
Wells, Eric Hinske, Orlando Hudson and Josh Phelps might develop
into very good hitters. But they’re in the wrong division and
need a lot to happen for them to make the playoffs.
Baltimore ““ ugh. At least they got rid of Albert
Belle’s and Scott Erickson’s contracts this year, worth
about a combined $17 million. Yes, both are still being paid by the
Orioles. It was just a few years ago that Baltimore tried to be
like the Yankees but failed.
The Orioles still have an upside. Their outfield of Melvin Mora,
Gary Matthews Jr. and Jay Gibbons can develop to be one of the best
in the league. Still, they probably won’t, and after Rodrigo
Lopez, the Orioles don’t have too many promising young
starters.
Tampa Bay did lose 106 games last season, as many as the hapless
Tigers, but they won’t be as bad this year. Or else Lou
Piniella’s head would explode.
It still might, regardless.
The Devil Rays are bad, but at least, now, they have some
future. They have a great manager in Piniella, and Rocco Baldelli
and Carl Crawford have great potential. Aubrey Huff is a legitimate
threat for 35 home runs. But the Devil Rays have no pitching after
Joe Kennedy, who is mediocre at best.
Still, this team is very similar to the Seattle teams Piniella
inherited. And they were contenders in a few seasons. Tampa fans
(if there are any) shouldn’t aim too high though. Piniella should
get Manager of the Year Award votes if he wins 70 games, something
the Devil Rays have never done.