In advance of Thursday night’s matchup between No. 18 UCLA and No. 15 Stanford, Daily Bruin Sports talked to Do-Hyoung Park, the lead football beat writer for the Stanford Daily. Park is also a managing editor of staff development and a copy editor.
Daily Bruin: Did Northwestern have a certain formula for beating Stanford, or were the Cardinal just a bit off in that game?
Do-Hyoung Park: I honestly don’t think there was really any formula to it. Even looking at the trajectories that the teams have taken since that game, I still believe that Stanford was the more talented team in that matchup and it’s definitely a game that Stanford should have won but didn’t. Even good teams have off weeks, and I think that’s just what it was for Stanford.
Firstly, the Cardinal weren’t adequately prepared for a surprisingly good Northwestern team that pretty much everybody was grossly underestimating during the offseason. Secondly, Stanford was playing without its two top receivers for most of the game due to an injury and a suspension, which severely limited (quarterback) Kevin Hogan’s options in the passing game. And thirdly, the execution was just off. Hogan delivered a lot of good balls that game and Stanford’s receivers probably had their worst game as a unit in terms of drops in my four seasons of watching Stanford football. Heck, (wide receiver) Michael Rector dropped the sure-fire game-tying touchdown late in the game that could have changed everything.
Given how well the team has rebounded since that game, though, I’m fairly convinced that the Northwestern game was an anomaly and just the token head-scratching road loss that Stanford is good for every season. C’est la vie.
DB: What makes Kevin Hogan such an efficient passer, and what can UCLA do to rattle him? Is he better against the blitz or against coverage?
DP: The thing about Kevin Hogan is that Stanford really doesn’t ask him to do too much, and what Stanford asks of him are things that he does well. His main problems over the last few years have been his ugly throwing motion, his tendency to overthrow the ball and his willingness to lock on to his top receiver and telegraph his throws. Those problems have been pretty much absent this season, which has made all the difference. Hogan, in general, has been so much more poised and accurate this season than he ever has before, which is a daunting prospect for opposing Pac-12 defenses. He’s on his second or third year working with a lot of his top targets, meaning that these routes, reads and concepts are almost second nature to them as a unit.
It also helps that Stanford’s offensive line has finally reached its potential in the run game. When (running back) Christian McCaffrey is gashing you for four or five yards a carry, that’s when you’re forced to crash your safeties and then Hogan has a much easier time of finding open receivers in space. It’s really a domino effect that’s fallen into place this season.
Usually, Hogan was pretty good against both blitzing and coverage because of his mobility – he wouldn’t hesitate to take off and pick up yards himself if pressured or without an open man – but I’d expect that to be different this game, with Hogan still suffering from the after-effects of a sprained ankle. Some heavy blitzes could force Hogan’s hand into some bad decisions since he can’t take off with the ball with full confidence.
DB: One of the questions about the Cardinal entering the season was their untested defensive line. How has that position group performed so far this season?
DP: Honestly, the defensive line has been great. And sitting here today, I’m still not entirely sure how that’s the case. Stanford’s defensive line has been held together with duct tape, safety pins and probably a little sorcery to boot, and it’s somehow held its own against some of the more aggressive rushing attacks of the Pac-12. Even with (defensive end) Harrison Phillips – who was expected to be an every-down player – gone with a torn ACL and with (defensive ends) Aziz Shittu and Brennan Scarlett – also known as the rest of our starting defensive line – and Nate Lohn – also known as our only serviceable backup – having missed time with injury, the Cardinal’s front seven has held strong.
Stanford held (USC running back) Tre Madden to 64 yards, (Oregon State running back) Storm Woods to 35 yards and (Arizona running back) Nick Wilson to 46 yards. I think the numbers speak for themselves, and I don’t envy Paul Perkins’ position on Thursday. Although the line hasn’t been great in getting to the quarterback, it plays very stout run defense with the help of a veteran linebacking corps. That being said, another serious injury could spell disaster.
DB: Stanford has struggled a bit in the red zone over the past couple years. Last year, the Cardinal were No. 85 in red zone touchdown percentage, and this year, they’re No. 42. Why do you think this is, considering Stanford’s usual success with running between the tackles?
DP: This is absolutely because of the progress that Stanford’s offensive line has shown over the last year. Last year, a lot of the red-zone failure was due to dumb penalties on the line’s part and an inability to open gaps for the running backs. This season, both of those problems have all but disappeared. Those second-and-short and third-and-short situations that Stanford struggled with so much last season have become all but automatic this year. The continued strong performances of Remound Wright, the Cardinal’s goal-line back, have also been a revelation.
A lot of Stanford fans give Wright a lot of flak for “stealing touchdowns” from McCaffrey because Wright pretty much only plays on goal-line packages as Stanford’s primary touchdown scorer and thus can have some pretty hilarious stat lines at times. That said, though, Wright has that job because he’s really darn good at what he does. He’ll find the end zone somehow, whether it’s leaping, bouncing off tackles and running to the perimeter or just running up the middle. And that’s paid off in dividends for Stanford this season.
DB: What do you think will be the most important factor in this game, if you had to choose one?
DP: One of the biggest misconceptions of Stanford this year is that the Cardinal are still a run-first team. I find it really funny when people still say things like “Stanford will run the ball on first and second down” as if it’s a given. This year, Stanford has been really aggressive with throwing out of 4-WR and 5-WR sets all season on first and second downs. I honestly wouldn’t hesitate to call Stanford a spread offense at some points this year, albeit without breakneck tempo. That’s just a testament to how far Hogan has come as a pocket passer.
That said, Stanford is still really, really good at running the ball, and the most important factor in this game will be if the Bruins can stop the run or not. If UCLA can’t stop Christian McCaffrey without crashing its safeties, Stanford will absolutely keep moving the chains and burn the secondary with play-action passes and early-down pass plays where UCLA will have its safeties cheating against the run and thus out of position to defend the pass.
But if UCLA can stuff the run, then the onus is put on Hogan to win the game. And for as good as Hogan has always been against UCLA, he’s not the type of quarterback that will win you games with his arm – Stanford has never won a game in which Hogan has attempted more than 30 passes. So if UCLA is able to take the running game out of the picture, things get a lot harder for Stanford’s offense, which loves balance much more than any of the other offenses in the Pac-12.
Compiled by Matthew Joye, Bruin Sports senior staff.