By Marie Blanchard
Daily Bruin Senior Staff
"California is back," said Kathleen Connell, the California
State Controller at the quarterly Anderson Business Forecast
conference early last week.
And, according to the predictions that the school released at
the conference, other Anderson economists agreed.
UCLA business forecasters were optimistic about the national and
Californian economies as they released their latest economic
predictions for 1996 through 2010.
"It’s a favorable forecast," said Tom Lieser, the Associate
Director of the Business Forecast Project of California (BFP). "The
overall growth rate of California has moved away from the decline
of the early ’90s," Lieser said.
With predictions ranging from a 2.1 percent annual increase in
the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and continued low
national inflation to California generating jobs at the rate of
three percent annually, the economic future, at least for the next
15 years, looks bright according to the BFP.
"The real GDP will grow in the next 14 years," said Larry
Kimbell, Director of the BFP. "The demographics are ideal, the
federal budget will be balanced in the next 15 years. We have
nothing to worry about ’till 2010."
The case for optimism in California looks strong. According to
Lieser, an expanding international trade, including strong foreign
demand for entertainment services, a successful multi-media
industry and a rise in the high-technology manufacturing sector
will mean a three percent annual growth rate in jobs for the
state.
Although the predicted growth rate is not enough to lower state
unemployment levels to below six percent, the unemployment rate is
currently lower than it has been in more than five years.
For recent and future UCLA graduates, this is good news. "It’s a
lot better job market than it’s been in recent years. In California
there are now job opportunities across the sectors," Lieser
said.
Specifically entertainment, food processing industries, farming
and technology will be strong areas according to Lieser.
"California is at the center of things that are happening," he
said.
Students were also enthusiastic about the economic forecast.
"This is good news," said Klaus Voelker, a third-year physics
graduate student. "A better economy means more University research
grants."
Hang Nguyen, a third-year Biology student, agreed. "This news
makes me feel more secure about my future."