And the envelope please …

And the envelope please …

The Grammys ­ or the nominations, at least ­ are
usually shocking. Here are our picks for who will win tonight.

By Michael Tatum

Daily Bruin Senior Staff

Popular music’s most prestigious awards ceremony ­ or most
irrelevant, depending on how you look at it ­ will be airing
tonight on CBS at 8 p.m.

The Grammys and the winners are voted upon by the National
Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences, NARAS.

These folks are not known for their good taste. Dylan and
Hendrix never won Grammys in the ’60s; Led Zeppelin and Elvis
Costello never won Grammys in the ’70s. And who can forget those
world-historic shakers and movers of popular music, Milli
Vanilli?

This year’s Live Through This, from Courtney Love’s band Hole,
topped every major critic’s poll in the United States and took
second place honors in several others. NARAS did not find it worthy
of a single Grammy nomination.

Basing our decisions on the conservative voting habits of the
NARAS, the Bruin has picked the likely winners for this year’s
awards, as well as who we think actually deserve to win out of the
five nominees. Unfortunately, due to lack of space, we could only
accommodate major categories.

When appropriate, we’ve also included our own write-in
candidates. The Grammy voters may have passed most of our choices
this year, but if Dylan and the Stones have taught us anything,
it’s that 30 years from now, Beck will be accepting an award for
Lifetime Achievement.

Album of the Year: The nominees are Tony Bennett’s MTV
Unplugged, Eric Clapton From The Cradle, Bonnie Raitt’s Longing in
the Hearts, Seal’s Seal and Jose Carreras, Placido Domingo, Luciano
Pavarotti with Zubin Mehta’s The Three Tenors in Concert 1994.

What Will Win: As Paul Grein astutely noted in the L.A. Times,
albums with strong conceptual hooks tend to win in this category.
Here, the records with that edge are Bennett’s (old fogey comes
back with a hip image) and Clapton’s (white bluesman pays homage to
the black pioneers who weren’t pale-skinned enough to be nominated
for Grammys of their own). The Grammy will most likely go to
Bennett for two reasons: First, Clapton already had his day in the
sun with "Tears In Heaven" and Unplugged, and second, it seems more
likely for younger voters to cross over to Bennett than for older
voters to cross over to Clapton.

What Deserves To Win: The aging Bennett sings like an emphysema
patient, the three tenors’ record is an exercise in egomania,
Seal’s entry is a pop record without the pop hooks and Raitt’s
album is a tremendous letdown after the mainstream triumph Luck of
the Draw. Leaving Clapton’s flawed but listenable blues outing as
the best record in this batch. Which isn’t saying much.

Write-in Candidate: Beck’s Mellow Gold, a challenging, diverse
collection of songs that, unlike this year’s nominated records,
charges into a future of endless possibility rather than clinging
onto a hopelessly dead past.

Best Pop Album: The Raitt, Seal and the three tenors’ albums,
plus Ace of Base’s The Sign and Lyle Lovett’s I Love Everybody.

What Will Win: Raitt. Since she won’t win in the Best Album
category, and Seal and the three tenors don’t have her crossover
appeal, her record seems more than likely to take honors here.

What Deserves to Win: Lovett’s 20-track record is stuffed with
filler; had he cut the finished in half, it might conceivably have
deserved this award over its contenders. The Ace of Base record,
meanwhile, actually has some mildly enjoyable fluff on it once you
get past the overplayed singles. So while ideologically, Raitt
probably deserves to win, her record is, objectively, probably
qualitatively equal with the Basers’.

Write-in Candidate: This category is incredibly ill-defined: why
is Seal nominated here and not in the R&B category? Why is
Lovett nominated here and not in the country category? At any rate,
our pick here is Latin Playboys, the magical, mystical foray into
"East L.A. ambient music" by Louie Pérez and David
Hidálgo of Los Lobos.

Best Rock Album: Pearl Jam’s Vs., R.E.M.’s Monster, the Rolling
Stones’ Voodoo Lounge, Soundgarden’s Superunknown and Neil Young
& Crazy Horse’s Sleeps With Angels.

What Will Win: Neil Young, who by virtue of his age probably
carries the most weight with NARAS voters, has been high profile
lately, particularly with his induction into the Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall
of Fame. But R.E.M. has a squeaky clean image that goes down well
with industry folk, and besides, they’ve been nominated for Best
Album twice, once in 1991 and again in 1992, more times than any of
the other nominees.

What Deserves to Win: How about that: three more-than -deserving
nominees. Vs., better known as Pearls Before Whine, has been
overrated by almost everybody, while Voodoo Lounge finds the former
World’s Greatest Rock Band on automatic pilot. But R.E.M.’s return
to rock after years of sensitivity was sensational and
Soundgarden’s breakthrough after years of sludge was an artistic
triumph. But Neil Young’s dark, disjointed homage to Kurt Cobain
and the world he left behind is the stuff of which masterpieces are
made.

Best Alternative Album: Tori Amos’ Under The Pink, Crash Test
Dummies God Shuffled His Feet, Green Day’s Dookie, Sarah
McLachlan’s Fumbling Towards Ecstacy and Nine Inch Nails’ The
Downward Spiral.

What Will Win: NARAS voters probably wouldn’t invite Green Day
over to dinner, but they can’t deny the fact they sell a lot of
records. Let’s hope the band’s acceptance speech is televised.

What Deserves to Win: Amos’ and McLachlan’s records are new age
hyperschlock in disguise, while Nine Inch Nails’ descent into
calculated angst is compelling musically but lyrically, it’s
laughably juvenile. Leaving Green Day’s engaging power pop ­
that is funny because it means to be ­ the most deserving
nominee here.

Write-in Candidate: Yet another category whose parameters need
to be defined more clearly. Does "alternative" mean "post punk
rock" or "music whose videos are played by MTV’s Kennedy"?

Either way, most of these records are "alternative" only in
contrast to to the Best Album nominees. More suitable, and more
deserving, nominees would be the eligible records from Beck, Sonic
Youth, Pavement, Sugar and Hole.

Best R&B Album: Anita Baker’s Rhythm Of Love, Boyz II Men’s
II, Tevin Campbell’s I’m Ready, Gladys Knight’s Just For You,
N’degeOcello’s Plantation Lullabies and Luther Vandross’ Songs.

What Will Win: Using the Green Day rule, it can be predicted
that Boyz II Men’s record ­ the only one of the above five
that had any commercial punch ­ will take the statue.

What Deserves to Win: In the real world, R&B means "dance
music"; through the short-sighted eyes of NARAS it means any music
recorded by someone of African descent. Baker, Knight and Vandross’
records, their disposablity aside, belong in the "pop" category,
not here. N’degeOcello meanwhile, is a promising artist with a long
way to go before she deserves recognition on this scale. Leaving,
oh well, Boyz II Men’s record as the most deserving candidate of
these slim pickings.

Elegant Slumming, by the British neo-disco band M People
(masterminded by two white keyboardists and fronted by black diva
Heather Small). Despite winning the U.K.’s prestigious Mercury
Prize, this record was overlooked not just by the Grammy voters,
but by most American rock critics as well.

Best Country Album: Asleep at the Wheel’s Tribute to the Music
of Bob Wills & the Texas Playboys, Mary Chapin Carpenter’s
Stones in the Road, Vince Gill’s When Love Finds You, Reba
McEntire’s Read My Mind and Trisha Yearwood’s The Song Remembers
When

What Will Win: Mary Chapin’s overserious, pseudoliterary Stones
would seem like the socially responsible choice for Grammy voters.
But actually, the album with the edge is Asleep at the Wheel’s,
which features numerous guest stars (including, oh dear, Huey
Lewis), and salutes ­ though not especially well ­ one of
country’s crucial figures.

What Deserves to Win: When Mary Chapin Carpenter is your best
pick for Best Country Album, you know you’ve got problems. Let’s
say we chuck the whole category out the window. Thank goodness Hank
Williams wasn’t alive to see this.

Write-in Candidate: Though it recalls the great chanteuses of
country music’s grand but long gone past, Iris DeMent’s starkly
beautiful My Life was nominated for Best Folk Album, but not
here.

Best New Artist: Ace Of Base, Counting Crows, Crash Test
Dummies, Sheryl Crow and Green Day

Who Will Win: Sheryl Crow, who is safe, mainstream, and
"meaningful" without being threatening.

Who Deserves to Win: Those who find Sheryl Crow’s overrated
Tuesday Night Music Club a snore can console themselves in the fact
that most artists who take home this category (Men At Work,
America, A Taste of Honey, Milli Vanilli, etc.) vanish into
obscurity a few years later. As for the rest, Counting Crows are
watered down Van Morrison for self-pitying Gen Xers and nostalgic
Yuppies, Crash Test Dummies are as lively as their namesakes, while
Abba wanna-bes Ace Of Base churn out the harmless pap of which
NARAS voters are fond. Leaving the bad boys in Green Day ­
notably the only artists here with energy or a sense of humor
­ as our pick.

Write-in Candidate: Beck.

Song of the Year: "Streets Of Philadelphia" (written by Bruce
Springsteen), "All I Wanna Do" (by Sheryl Crow, David Baerwald,
Bill Bottrell, Wyn Cooper and Kevin Gilbert), "I Swear" (by Gary
Baker and Frank Myers), "Can You Feel The Love Tonight" and "Circle
Of Life" (both by Elton John and Tim Rice).

What Will Win: "Streets of Philadelphia," which will win for the
same reason that Tom Hanks won the Oscar: so that the voters can
feel good about themselves for "contributing" to a worthy
cause.

What Deserves to Win: The two Lion King songs are both asinine
and irrelevant, and serve as a depressing reminder of Elton John’s
depressing deterioration into sub-mediocrity. Crow’s song is about
as fun as getting carjacked on Santa Monica Boulevard. "I Swear,"
is a corny declaration of true love, though that’s probably part of
its admittedly sweet charm. Leaving the Boss’s deeply felt song
about a man’s struggle with AIDS ­ which could be the very
first Grammy-winning song with a hint of homosexual content in the
lyrics ("Receive me brother with your faithless kiss") ­ as
our pick.

Record of the Year: Boys II Men’s "I’ll Make Love To You," Mary
Chapin Carpenter’s "He Thinks He’ll Keep Her," Sheryl Crow’s "All I
Wanna Do," Bonnie Raitt’s "Love Sneakin’ Up On You" and
Springsteen’s "Streets of Philadelphia."

What Will Win: Springsteen.

What Deserves to Win: Springsteen.

Best Performance, Pop Female: Mariah Carey’s "Hero," Crow’s "All
I Wanna Do," Celine Dion’s "The Power of Love," Raitt’s "Longing in
Their Hearts" and Barbra Streisand’s "Ordinary Miracles."

What Will Win: Of the five songs, only Carey’s and Crow’s had a
considerable public presence this year. Since Crow will win Best
New Artist, her victory here seems to be pre-determined.

What Deserves To Win: Raitt’s entry was the strongest, and most
spirited song, on her otherwise pro forma record.

Write-in Candidate: Victoria Williams’ "You R Loved," an
inspiring optimistic tune that’s pop without the condescension that
the word "pop" usually implies.

Best Performance, Pop Male: Prince’s "The Most Beautiful Girl in
the World," Michael Bolton’s "Said I Loved You … But I Lied,"
Elton John’s "Can You Feel the Love Tonight," Seal’s "Prayer For
the Dying" and Luther Vandross’ "Love the One You’re With."

What Will Win: Seal’s "Prayer For the Dying," sort of the
black-pop version of "Streets Of Philadelphia," would seem to be
the obvious choice. But Elton John has more commercial clout, thus
he seems more likely to win.

What Deserves to Win: The shortcomings of housewife favorites
Elton John and Michael Bolton needn’t be mentioned. Luther Vandross
is a great singer wasting his time with slick arrangements. Seal’s
song, like the rest of his album, means well, but is boring.
Leaving the Purple One’s likable ballad as the most worthy
nominee.

Write-in Candidate: Freedy Johnston’s "Bad Reputation." Johnston
isn’t as naturally histrionic as show-offs Bolton or John, but his
world-weary delivery conveys the emotions his song means to
deliver.

Best Performance, Pop Duo or Group: Ace Of Base’s "The Sign,"
All-4-One’s "I Swear," Crash Test Dummies’ "Mmm Mmm Mmm," Lisa Loeb
and Nine Stories’ "Stay" and the Pretenders’ "I’ll Stand By
You."

What Will Win: Ace Of Base’s full-length record was the biggest
seller of last year. Need we say more? Since they’ll most likely be
passed up in the other categories, this is the statue they’ll most
likely take home.

What Deserves to Win: Most critics would probably choose the
Pretenders, merely on principle (i.e. "She didn’t win for "Brass In
Pocket," dammit! This will make up for it!"). But the song is
musical cotton candy, about as sincere as a Pepsi commercial. Crash
Test Dummies and Lisa Loeb’s songs are one-shots that are blanks.
Leaving our pick between Ace Of Base (perky, kinda cute) and
All-4-One (cheesy romance, kinda cute).

Write-in Candidate: Though most people would file it under
"alternative," R.E.M.’s gorgeous "Wall of Death," on the Richard
Thompson tribute album Beat the Retreat, is mainstream folk-rock
cut from the same cloth as Bonnie Raitt. It deserves to win on the
basis of Michael Stipe and Mike Mills’ emphatic duet vocal
alone.

Grammy coverage will continue on Friday with a backstage report
from popular music’s dubious awards show.