Prior to each UCLA football game, the Daily Bruin football beat writers will predict the score and give a short reasoning behind their predictions.
To keep track of how far off each writer’s predictions are from reality, the “prediction differential” statistic shows the average difference between the writer’s predicted margin of victory and the actual margin of victory in each game.
Kevin Bowman’s prediction
UCLA: 38
USC: 24
Prediction record: 8-2
Prediction differential: 13.7
UCLA has turned its season around. It’s become the team that it was expected to be when it was ranked No. 7 before the season. Coming off four straight wins – and two dominant performances in their final two games – the Bruins are poised to finish atop the Pac-12 South.
USC, meanwhile, has had a very uneven season. From looking like a Pac-12 contender at the start of the year to surrendering over 400 rushing yards to Boston College just weeks later, the Trojans haven’t been consistent this season.
Most recently, USC allowed a middling Cal team to creep back into the game last week after playing a sluggish second half – a problem that has plagued the Trojans much of the season.
To put it simply, the Bruins are just the better team this year.
While USC has elite talent at its skill positions, its depth is a cause for concern and a major reason for USC’s poor finishes to games as players get tired.
UCLA has no such problems, has been playing better of late and has had two weeks to rest and prepare for this matchup. Expect the Bruins to complete the three-peat.
Jordan Lee’s prediction
UCLA 38
USC 30
Prediction record: 9-1
Prediction differential: 13.5
UCLA enters Saturday playing its best ball of the season and in complete control of its own destiny after a slip-up by Arizona State last weekend put the Bruins in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 South. UCLA has also been in control of this rivalry for the past two years, particularly after last season’s resounding 35-14 victory at the Coliseum.
USC though, as usual, has talent across the board. It’s one of the reasons why the Trojans start so fast in games this season, outscoring opposing teams 129-22 in the first quarter. Redshirt junior quarterback Cody Kessler has flourished in his second year as the starter and first in coach Steve Sarkasian’s system, tossing for 2,919 yards and 29 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Junior running back Javorius “Buck” Allen is the conference’s top rusher, leading redshirt sophomore running back Paul Perkins by just 12 yards. Junior Nelson Agholor is the latest in a line of dynamic Trojan wideouts while a number of talented underclassmen fill out the rest of the roster.
Oh, and there is also junior defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who might just be the nation’s best player. Period.
The problem for USC is that the Trojan depth chart is about as thin as the paper Sarkasian writes it on. USC is still suffering the effects of scholarship sanctions doled out by the NCAA and the school in 2010, with the team wilting in the final quarter at times. The Trojans have been outscored 78-66 this season.
That could prove problematic against a deep and potent Bruins ground attack that runs about four deep with Perkins, redshirt senior running back Jordon James, freshman running back Nate Starks and, of course, sophomore linebacker Myles Jack, who ran for a score agains the Trojans a year ago.
On the other side of the ball, UCLA’s stout defensive line – which has been outstanding as of late – should match up well with an inexperienced albeit talented USC offensive line. Jeff Ulbrich’s group has put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks as of late and the UCLA defensive coordinator will make it a point of emphasis to get after Kessler.
More troubling for USC is redshirt junior quarterback Brett Hundley, who is coming off of one of his best games ever after dismantling Washington. The Trojans have shown no answer for him in two previous matchups as Hundley has exited each game with two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions. If Hundley does so again – and given his and the UCLA offensive line’s play over the past month – he will likely end his career with the Bruins 3-0 against the Trojans.
Compiled by Kevin Bowman and Jordan Lee, Bruin Sports senior staff.