On the same day that Shai Feldman, a prominent Israeli political
analyst, talked at UCLA about the feasibility of the U.S.-backed
Middle East peace plan, the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers
met in Israel to discuss the implementation of the plan.
The road map to peace, which was co-authored by the United
States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, calls
for a Palestinian state by 2005. It has received support from both
the Palestinian and Israeli governments.
Feldman, the director for the Jaffre Center for Strategic
Studies at Tel Aviv University, outlined what he felt were three
reasons for why the road map could succeed.
First, he said, Israelis have woken up to a “demographic
threat” within their borders from a rising population of
Palestinians.
Palestinians currently comprise 47 percent of the population
between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River and dominate the
age bracket of 15 years old, meaning that the number of Palestinian
youth will increase significantly.
Accordingly, if projections for population size are made five to
10 years in the future, Palestinians would constitute the
majority.
“This means the ability to retain Israel as a Jewish and
democratic state with this kind of demography would be
impossible,” he said.
This makes Israelis increasingly willing to give Palestinians
their own state, he said.
From the Palestinian point of view, Feldman cites a gradual
realization that the 32-month-old Intifada, or uprising, has
resulted in a “colossal, strategic catastrophe” to the
Palestinian cause.
Rather than fulfilling its original objective of breaking
Israel’s will, Feldman said the Intifada has left the
Palestinian government in shambles, damaged relations with the
United States, and disillusioned many dovish Israelis.
“If you analyze this from the Palestinian perspective,
this has been a disaster,” he said.
Palestinians, therefore, will look to the road map over
terrorism to achieve statehood.
Finally, Feldman said the political changes wrought by the
U.S.-victory in Iraq have opened a “window of
opportunity” as the United States wields more political clout
in the Middle East.
“Irrespective of what you think about the war in Iraq and
irrespective of what you think of the affects of the war within
Iraq … the war accelerated peaceful processes regarding the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” he said.
Feldman cautioned that this “window” should not be
regarded as permanent and that leaders should pursue peace
quickly.
“Windows are what they are: They’re windows. And
windows have a tendency to be closed (over time),” he
said.
Meanwhile, in his second meeting with his Palestinian
counterpart Mahmoud Abbas in two weeks, Israeli Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon told Abbas that as a show of good faith he would
unilaterally end the 2-week-old closure on the West Bank and allow
25,000 Palestinian workers to enter Israel.
Israel also would ease some roadblocks around Palestinian towns
and release some prisoners, according to Israeli and Palestinian
officials.
In return, Sharon demanded that Abbas “act decisively to
stop terrorism, … dismantling terror organizations, arresting
terrorists, confiscating illegal weapons, stopping incitement and
creating an atmosphere of peace,” according to a statement
released by Sharon’s office.
If Abbas were to comply, Israel would begin negotiations to
“establish a provisional Palestinian state and afterward a
permanent state,” the statement said.
Abbas said he hopes to reach a cease-fire agreement with the
Islamic militant group Hamas next week and that he might also reach
an agreement with Islamic Jihad.
President Bush plans on meeting Sharon and Abbas on Wednesday in
Jordan to officially launch the peace process.
With reports from Daily Bruin wire services.