Presumptuous as it may be, allow me to sum up this year’s
Oscar nominations in just one word: boring.
In conversations I had with the four pop-culture encyclopedias
that run the arts and entertainment section ““ or, as I like
to call them, the “Four Hipsters of the Apocalypse”
““ I heard almost every major nominee predicted well before
the nominations were announced Tuesday.
In the eight major categories (picture, director, the two
screenwriting categories and the four acting categories), the film
editor guessed a stunning 36 nominees correctly out of 40.
That’s 90 percent. I guess that’s how he got his
job.
I didn’t do quite as well since I had “Match
Point” and “The Squid and the Whale” getting a
few more nods, but I still put in a solid effort, landing in the
mid-80s percent-wise. Usually I’m lucky if I hit 70.
These numbers aren’t meant to boast, but merely to point
out how predictable the nominees are, and therefore, how incredibly
boring. The most surprising nominee this year is for Best Song, and
that’s only because I never thought the Academy would ever
nominate anything with the word “pimp” in its
title.
Still, since the nominees were so predictable, they are also by
corollary, rather good. When predicting nominees, people naturally
tend to pick their favorites of the year, hoping the Academy will
either agree, making them look smart, or disagree, giving them
something to complain about.
Personally, I didn’t care much for “Crash” and
I thought “Munich” was far too long, but other than
that, I liked all the nominees. “Enron: The Smartest Guys in
the Room” even got a Documentary Feature nomination, which I
liked more than “March of the Penguins.”
In short, all the people who like to complain every year about
great films getting snubbed because the Academy favors movies that
do well at the box office have nothing to complain about this
year.
In millions of dollars, the current box-office proceeds of the
five nominees for Best Picture are 15, 25, 41, 51 and 53, which
sound more like lottery numbers than profits. In other words, of
the five best movies of the year, the biggest box office draw,
“Crash,” was the 48th most widely seen movie of
2005.
“March of the Penguins,” the Documentary Feature
favorite, made more money than every Best Picture nominee. Wait,
“Be Cool” made more than every Best Picture nominee.
Ten movies made more than all five nominees combined.
It would be easy to make a joke here about the interests of the
apparently vast majority of the American movie-going public, but it
would also be rather pointless. People know that the best and the
most successful movies of any given year are completely different,
unless a movie has the words “lord” and
“rings” in its title.
However, what’s different about this year’s list of
Oscar nominees is the complete (as opposed to general) lack of
box-office success on the Best Picture level. Usually, the Academy
nominates at least one movie for Best Picture that has made over
$100 million. The film may not deserve the nomination, but it gets
it nonetheless to increase national interest in the awards
show.
People will watch the Oscars to see if the movies they saw win
any awards. This year, the Academy is asking a very risky question:
Will people watch the Oscars if they haven’t seen the movies
nominated?
Before the nominations were announced, I was positive that
“Walk the Line” would get a Best Picture nomination. It
won the Golden Globe award for Best Picture, Musical or Comedy. Its
two lead actors, Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, were locks
to get Best Actor and Best Actress nominations, respectively. And,
perhaps most importantly, the movie made $106 million.
I’m not going to say that “Walk the Line” got
snubbed; I don’t think it was one of the five best movies of
the year. Still, I thought it would get nominated. The Academy
needs it up there with the other Best Picture nominees to ensure
that people between the two coasts of the country watch the
ceremony.
In Oscar history, the last time that none of the Best Picture
nominees made $100 million was in 1985. Then again, only three
movies made over $100 million that year, and “The Color
Purple,” one of the Best Picture nominees, came in fourth in
the box office with $94 million. Three of the five nominees were
among the top 10 box-office draws of the year.
This year’s situation is unparalleled in Oscar history.
Will the ratings drop? Will people still watch for the fashion and
then go see “Brokeback Mountain” once it wins? Or will
they watch for the fashion, but go to sleep before it ends? Once
Terrence Howard performs “It’s Hard Out Here for a
Pimp” on live network television, will there be anything left
worth watching?
Tracer expects Oscar host Jon Stewart to make three pimp
jokes at this year’s ceremony. E-mail him your guess at
jtracer@media.ucla.edu.