If the Academy were thinking big-picture, Ledger would win

With just a week and a half remaining on the calendar until
Oscar night, it’s time to start thinking about whom
you’re going to pick in your local pool. Sure, betting on the
Oscars is barely a footnote to a prelude of betting on March
Madness, but since when do people need to justify gambling? If, as
in “Guys and Dolls,” Sky Masterson can bet thousands of
dollars on one raindrop beating another raindrop down a window,
everyone else can surely bet on who will take home a little gold
statue that says “Best Actor.”

After all, it’s far less random, which, unfortunately for
my purposes, also makes it far less interesting. If you’re
still reading this column, I’m sure you’re the kind of
person who already knows that Philip Seymour Hoffman is going to
beat out Heath Ledger and three other
I’m-just-happy-to-be-here nominees.

You don’t need to read 700 words about why it will happen;
the Four Hipsters of the Apocalypse ““ the four The New
Yorker-reading students who run the arts and entertainment section
““ don’t want to edit 700 words about why it will
happen; and most of all, I don’t want to write 700 words
about why it will happen.

What’s far more interesting is figuring out why Ledger
won’t win.

The short answer, and also the boring one, is because
Hoffman’s performance in the title role of
“Capote” was so perfect that even Gerald Clarke, who
wrote the definitive biography on the writer, called the film
“classy” on his Web site.

Hoffman has won most major critics’ association awards,
the Golden Globe, the SAG and, most recently, the BAFTA, though I
realize no one in this country (or any other, really) cares about
that last one.

Still, there’s one way in theory that Ledger could give
Hoffman a run for his money, but it’s unfortunately against
Academy rules. Ledger needs Academy voters to consider all of his
film roles in 2005, not just his turn as Ennis Del Mar in
“Brokeback Mountain.”

Some of the critics’ association awards use such a
practice, and it’s no coincidence that Ledger beat Hoffman in
those awards. He starred in four movies that were released in 2005:
“Lords of Dogtown,” “The Brothers Grimm,”
“Brokeback Mountain” and “Casanova.”
Despite the relative quality of any picture as a whole, he’s
great in them all.

In fact, I don’t think any actor has had a year quite like
Ledger’s, except perhaps Humphrey Bogart, who was in five
movies in 1942, topped off with “Casablanca.”
That’s some pretty good company to keep.

(Note: Some readers might argue that Jude Law had such a year
just last year. It’s true, he was in six movies in 2004, but
he only starred in three of them. Also, I reserve the right to
ignore any actor who chooses to play a character named Gigolo
Joe.)

The Academy doesn’t consider multiple starring roles by
the same actor in a single year because it’s nobly looking
for the single best performance of the year. But there’s
something to be said for putting out an impressive body of work
that spans the calendar.

Once in a blue moon, an actor will get nominated in both the
Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor category. That happened last
year, when Jamie Foxx was nominated for both “Ray”
(Best Actor) and “Collateral” (Best Supporting Actor),
but he only won one award, for “Ray.”

It also happened in 1993 and 1945. In 1993, Al Pacino was
nominated for both “Scent of a Woman” (Best Actor) and
“Glengarry Glen Ross” (Best Supporting Actor), and won
Best Actor.

In a very strange occurrence in 1945, Barry Fitzgerald was
nominated for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor for the same
movie (“Going My Way”). He won the supporting award,
but lost Best Actor to Bing Crosby, who was also nominated for
“Going My Way” (though only for Best Actor). Not
surprisingly, the film also won Best Picture.

If the Academy can get that screwy, perhaps Ledger deserves an
award for putting out four noteworthy performances in one year
alone.

It doesn’t seem too far out of line ““ it’s
sometimes difficult to find five nomination-worthy performances in
all of Hollywood. Just look at this year’s Best Actress race;
but that’s an entirely different story that deserves its own
column …

Tracer spends way too much time looking up Academy history
on IMDb. E-mail him at jtracer@media.ucla.edu.

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