Will Steve Alford leave UCLA for Indiana? How will Memphis fans respond to John Calipari’s return?
If you’re already tired of either of those storylines, fear not. Friday’s South Regional Sweet 16 matchup between No. 2 seed Kentucky and No. 3 seed UCLA is nearly here, and the on-court action should drown out the buzz about the coaches.
Just ask Calipari, the Wildcats coach who spent much of Thursday’s press conference fielding questions about his controversial departure from Memphis.
“This is about two unbelievably talented teams,” Calipari said. “People are going to watch this game not because I’m coaching and not because I came back to Memphis and not because Steve is coaching. They’re going to watch it because this is a talented two teams.”
This much we know: It’s going to be fast and it’s going to be fun.
The game will feature the two highest-tempo teams in the entire 68-team tournament field, according to KenPom.com, and six of DraftExpress’s top 30 NBA Draft prospects.
The most buzzed-about individual showdown of the Sweet 16 is between these teams’ freshman point guards, UCLA’s Lonzo Ball and Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox, and there are plenty of other enticing matchups.
As for who comes out on top, it seems to be anyone’s guess.
Advanced metric sites like KenPom.com and FiveThirtyEight give the edge to the Wildcats, but the Bruins were the more popular choice for participants in ESPN’s NCAA Tournament Challenge Second Chance.
Among Vegas sportsbooks, an even spread is the consensus, according to OddsShark.
Quick Breakdown
Ball said on Tuesday that the Bruins’ December win over the Wildcats didn’t really mean anything anymore because the teams are different than they were back then.
It wasn’t just a PR-friendly statement from the point guard. It was the truth.
Most notably, both squads have improved on defense, spurred by midseason slumps that exposed their need for growth on that end of the floor.
Since losing three out of four in late January and early February, Kentucky has won 13 games in a row on the back of a defense that’s morphed into one of the nation’s best.
Entering Friday, the Wildcats boasted the seventh-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom.com. During their win streak, they have allowed just 0.95 points per possession, according to Hoop Lens data.
“We’re engaged more on defense this time,” Kentucky forward Bam Adebayo said. “At the beginning of the season, we didn’t really care for it because we were beating everybody, outscoring everybody. Now, people are going to take us out of our transition game, so we’ve got to lock in on defense because we might not get every shot we want.”
To a lesser extent, the Bruins have done the same, rising from around 130th in adjusted defensive efficiency to being ranked 79th, as of Friday. After losing two straight to Arizona and USC in late January, UCLA refocused on the defensive end and has given up 1.01 points per possession over the past 13 games. When Ball has been on the floor, they’ve given up under a point per possession.
Something to watch: The Bruins did not play zone at all in the first meeting with the Wildcats, but have increasingly gone to their 3-2 zone look down the stretch of the season.
Though it’s become solid, the Bruins’ defense is far from exceptional, and certainly not as good as the Wildcats’ defense.
But the Bruins’ winning recipe all season long has been based on its offense, which leads the nation in points per game and field goal percentage. As UCLA demonstrated last Sunday in a second-half evisceration of Cincinnati’s stout defense, it’s hard to keep Ball and the Bruins down for 40 minutes.
Kentucky found that out in December.
Generally the ones trying to speed up their opponents, the Wildcats lost to the Bruins at their own game.
Kentucky has slowed its pace some since then, and though they’ve got the speed to run with UCLA, they know it’s dangerous against this UCLA team.
“We know it’s going to be a track meet, but we have to be able to slow down their offense if we’re going to be able to win,” Fox said.
Three keys
1. Turnover battle
UCLA shot the lights out in the first matchup, putting up an effective field goal percentage of 60.6 percent.
The Bruins aren’t likely to shoot it that well again against a much-improved Wildcat defense, but that doesn’t necessarily mean their efficiency will dip. They turned it over a whopping 18 times in the December matchup, their second-highest total of the year.
They’re unlikely to repeat that. One of the reasons the Bruins have been so good offensively is their lack of turnovers. They cough the ball up on just 15 percent of their possessions, the ninth-best rate in the nation, according to KenPom.com.
Over the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, UCLA has turned it over just nine times while racking up 43 assists.
“We’ve gotten better at taking care of the ball,” Alford said. “We had nine turnovers in the first two rounds in the NCAA Tournament – that’s unheard of playing as fast as we play.”
Kentucky, too, is the rare team that pushes the pace and still manages to avoid turnovers. The Wildcats rank 24th in the country in turnover rate.
“It’s one thing to play up-tempo, it’s another thing to play up-tempo and yet under control,” Alford said. “You’ve got two teams that have really settled into their identity of being up-tempo, fast-paced, very skilled players that are playing at a fast pace and making (good) decisions.”
2. Interior play
UCLA freshman forward T.J. Leaf was the star of the teams’ first meeting, putting up 17 points and 13 rebounds and prompting Calipari to say afterward that he “dominated” the game.
Fellow freshman forward Ike Anigbogu came off the bench to provide a spark with two blocks and four offensive rebounds. He put an emphatic cap on a Bruin run early in the second half by blocking Wildcat freshman Bam Adebayo and throwing down a thunderous putback dunk on the other end less than 10 seconds later.
“I was hyped up to go against them,” Anigbogu said. “I knew the moment was big, so I just tried to make an impact.”
In theory, though, the Wildcats should have the advantage on the inside. They rank in the top 100 in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate, whereas the Bruins are outside the top 100 in both.
As of late, Kentucky has been even better on the glass. During their 13-game winning streak, the Wildcats have allowed opponents to grab just 23.9 percent of their misses, a defensive rebounding rate that would rank fifth in the country.
Adebayo has spurred much of the improvement. After Calipari challenged him to rebound better midway through the season, the 6-foot-10 260-pounder has averaged a double-double during Kentucky’s win streak.
He scored twice on putbacks in each of the Wildcats’ first two tournament games, averaging 14 points and 14 rebounds in those contests.
“He’s extremely athletic, a really big dude,” junior center Thomas Welsh said. “He’s really hard to guard off pick-and-rolls, whether it’s throwing it up to him for lobs or just rolls for dunks.”
Anigbogu has been similarly effective for UCLA down the stretch, albeit with less playing time than Adebayo, helping the Bruins allow just 0.91 points per possession when he’s been on the floor over the past 13 games.
3. Malik Monk
The Bruins, who boast a wider array of offensive options than the Wildcats, might be able to pull out a win even if their best shooter, Bryce Alford, doesn’t light it up.
Kentucky, on the other hand, probably needs a big performance from its sharpshooter, Monk, to keep up with UCLA’s offense.
Monk, who earned Southeastern Conference Player of the Year honors this season as a freshman, is plenty capable of delivering. He’s averaging 20 points per game and has reached the 30-point mark four times.
He’s been in a funk recently, though. He’s 5-for-26 from 3-point land over his past six games and just 2-for-11 in the NCAA Tournament.
Over the course of Kentucky’s 13-game win streak, Monk is averaging just 16.8 points on 37.4 percent shooting, and the Wildcats have been more efficient on both ends of the floor when he’s been on the bench, per Hoop Lens data.
Thus far, Kentucky has survived in spite of Monk’s cold shooting, but if any opponent is going to test the Wildcats’ ability to overcome a cold night from their best shooter, it’s UCLA.
One interesting note: Monk takes a lot of his 3-point attempts in transition, but he’s much better in the half-court. On the season, he’s shot just 24.7 percent on transition 3s, compared to a lethal 45.9 percent on 3-point attempts in the half-court, per Hoop-Math.
Fun fact
Bam Adebayo has 94 dunks this season, the most of any big man during John Calipari’s time at Kentucky.