The 2016 presidential contest is becoming as heated as the Los Angeles summer. The Republican and Democratic parties are holding their nominating conventions, and much like the inescapable LA heat, we can’t expect a break from the presidential invectives until November. But another race is being lost in the noise: California’s election to fill the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Barbara Boxer.
Back in February I posited that the race could feature two Democrats because of California’s primary system, in which the top two vote-getters in the primary election advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. And sure enough, out of a ridiculously crowded field of 35 candidates, a pair of Democrats took the top two spots. California Attorney General Kamala Harris finished in first place with about 40 percent of the vote. U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez of Orange County finished a distant second, with 18.6 percent of the vote.
That Sanchez managed to muster enough support to beat every Republican in the race and secure a spot in the general election against another Democrat is an impressive feat, even in deep-blue California. Now that Sanchez is in the prime time, her mostly Hispanic base won’t suffice. She’ll need significant Republican and Independent support.
After all, it’s no secret that Harris, a solid Bay Area liberal supported by most traditional Democratic constituencies, is the favorite in this race. Since I’m one-for-one with my Senate predictions thus far, I’ll even go out on a limb and say that Harris will win the general election.
Meanwhile, Sanchez will have to emphasize her centrist, maverick credentials in order to expand beyond her Hispanic base and convince moderate and conservative voters that she’d be a better choice than the progressive Harris.
Although polling since the primary has been sparse, a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released last month suggests that the outcome in November could be even more lopsided than the primary. Of those surveyed, 47 percent supported Harris, with Sanchez far behind at 22 percent.
What’s more, Harris has earned the endorsement of a wide range of Democratic officials and organizations, including the California Democratic Party, Governor Jerry Brown, U.S. senators Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, and most recently, President Barack Obama.
The last endorsement has proven especially stinging for Sanchez, who ripped Obama’s decision as an example of the “political establishment” meddling in the election, and implied that racial politics may have played a part in the the endorsement.
But it also illuminated the narrow path Sanchez needs to take if she wants even a shot at winning her promotion to the Senate. By rebuking Obama, Sanchez has cast herself as the underdog fighting against the liberal establishment. Only instead of running from the left, a la Bernie Sanders, she’s attacking from the center.
Of course, her centrist portrayal belies her solidly liberal voting record during her 20-year tenure in the House of Representatives. She’s pro-choice, has an 87 percent rating from the American Civil Liberties Union, is pro-gun control, generally opposes free trade, supports immigration reform and voted for the Affordable Care Act. However, she hews more closely to the center with fiscal policy, and is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, made up of centrist Democrats.
And while earning bipartisan support will be difficult, Sanchez has had a good start. Richard Riordan, the former Republican mayor of Los Angeles, endorsed Sanchez, citing her penchant for working across the aisle and fiscally moderate record. Additionally, her hawkish national security record earned her the support of the pro-GOP Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC. Perhaps most shocking of all, conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt offered Sanchez his seal of approval when she appeared on his show.
A Hispanic-Republican coalition will be difficult to achieve in a year when the Republican presidential nominee’s biggest policy platform involves building a wall across the Mexican border. But since Harris already has most of the traditional Democratic constituencies locked down, Sanchez will be forced to seek out those more conservative votes.
Which brings us to the all-encompassing question: Can Sanchez win? Probably not. Given the massive polling gap, the fact that Harris is already close to the magic 50-percent-plus-one she needs to send her to Washington and a presidential election will bring more Democratic voters to the polls, Sanchez faces a steep uphill battle. She’ll need every Republican and independent vote she can get to put her over the top. But if she can pull it off, consider it one of the 21st century’s greatest political upsets.