One statistic has really set UCLA and Utah apart this year – by a wide margin.
The statistic involves scoring at the rim, and converting on easy offensive chances. Utah (19-7, 8-5 Pac-12) is the conference’s best in that category, shooting 61.9 percent on its 273 layup attempts during Pac-12 play. UCLA (14-11, 5-7 Pac-12) is nearly the polar opposite, ranking 11th in the Pac-12 by making just 48.8 percent of its 209 layup attempts during conference play.
All of the statistics mentioned above come from ESPN.com play-by-play data, which breaks field goals down into four categories for each game: dunks, layups, jumpers and three-point jumpers. For example, the play-by-play sheets for UCLA’s games this year versus Washington, at Washington and at USC reveal that the Bruins missed 15, 17 and 17 layups, respectively, in those contests. UCLA happened to lose all three of those games.
“We got a lot of great looks around the rim, me too, (and) I missed a ton of them,” said sophomore center Thomas Welsh after the USC game on Feb. 4, when UCLA missed a season-high 17 layups. “I think it’s just focus and concentration.
Luckily for the Bruins, they don’t shoot many layups – placing 11th in the conference in layups attempted. UCLA counterbalances its low field-goal percentage on layups with a very high accuracy rate on mid-range jumpers. The Bruins top the Pac-12 in both mid-range jumper percentage – 42.7 percent – and mid-range jumpers attempted – 309.
Utah is almost completely different in terms of its offensive style. The Utes rank last in the Pac-12 in mid-range jumper attempts – 144 – and second-to-last in field-goal percentage on mid-range jumpers – 29.2 percent. Essentially, if the Utes shoot the ball inside the arc, they are likely to be pounding the ball into the paint. The formula has worked to Utah’s benefit, as the Utes rank No. 1 in the Pac-12 in terms of overall field goal percentage, while UCLA trails behind at No. 7.
Much of Utah’s scoring efficiency at the rim comes down to one player: 7-foot forward/center Jakob Poeltl. The sophomore from Vienna, Austria, leads the Pac-12 with a 67.1 field-goal percentage, rarely extending his shooting range outside of the paint.
“I think he’s gotten quicker with his moves, (and) he’s done a good job making his foul shots,” said UCLA coach Steve Alford of Poeltl. “At least in the Pac-12 and especially offensively, I don’t think we’ve seen anybody this good.”
Poeltl’s size, dexterity and soft touch around the rim have put him high on the draft boards of NBA scouts. The NBA mock-draft websites NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.com each project Poeltl to go No. 7 overall to the Denver Nuggets in the 2016 NBA draft, should he declare.
“Obviously he’s a very, very special player,” said UCLA junior guard Bryce Alford. “He just presents a lot of matchup problems. He’s a lot more versatile and a lot more mobile than he looks. … There haven’t been too many guys, if any that we’ve seen, that play the way he does.”
If UCLA can stop Poeltl down low, and force Utah to shoot from the outside instead of in the paint, then the Bruins could have a good chance of pulling off the upset Thursday.
But if the Bruins can’t find a way to increase their low accuracy rate on layups, it may not matter how well they play defense.