On Saturday, UCLA (7-3, 4-3 Pac-12) will face No. 13 Utah (8-2, 5-2) with a chance to reach the Pac-12 championship game on the line. Utah surged out of the gates this season – going 6-0 and rising as high as No. 3 in the AP Poll – but has lost two of its four games since. Now, the Utes find themselves in a situation where they no longer control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South.
Here’s a scouting report for Utah, which is led by a run-heavy offense and run-stopping defense.
Offense
Base formations: Shotgun and pistol
Run/pass ratio: 60 percent run, 40 percent pass
Strengths: Running up the middle and throwing short passes
Weaknesses: Downfield passes and overall explosiveness
X-factor: Backup QB Kendal Thompson
Utah’s offense suffered a huge blow on Thursday, and perhaps its most fatal blow of the season: Star running back Devontae Booker was ruled out for the season with a meniscus injury.
Prior to the injury, Booker had been the Utes’ workhorse, accounting for just over 40 percent of the team’s total offense. He ran for at least 100 yards in seven games this year – Utah went 6-1 in those games – and he also put up 156 rushing yards last year against UCLA.
“That’s the best running back we’ll play all year,” said junior nose tackle Kenny Clark earlier this week, before hearing the news about Booker’s injury. “Booker’s a tremendous athlete, a strong runner. You can’t arm tackle him – he’s going to run through the tackles.”
Without Booker, Utah’s offense loses its identity. The senior running back has more carries than any player in the NCAA, with 268 on the season. Only two Pac-12 teams – Oregon and Stanford – ran the ball more often than Utah did with Booker in the backfield.
The loss of Booker is especially devastating because Utah doesn’t have a lot of running-back depth behind him. The Utes’ second-string running back – Joe Williams – has just 19 carries for 78 yards this year. The leading rusher behind Booker is quarterback Travis Wilson, but many of Wilson’s 367 rushing yards have been set up by the play-action fake to Booker.
It will be interesting to see if Utah varies its scheme without the power of Booker in the backfield. Perhaps the Utes will bring in dual-threat quarterback Kendal Thompson, and run more of a read-option system. That plan worked to a tee against UCLA last year, when Thompson ran for 83 yards on 19 carries en route to an upset win at UCLA.
If the Thompson experiment goes untested, then the Utes really have nothing to fall back on offensively. Sure, Utah has a senior quarterback in Wilson, but he has consistently been one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the Pac-12 during his career. Entering this game, Wilson leads all Pac-12 starting quarterbacks with an interception rate of 3.66 percent.
If the Bruins apply pressure in the backfield, and don’t allow Wilson to escape the pocket with his legs, then they should be able to handle the Utes’ offense.
Defense
Base formation: 4-3
Blitz tendency: Low to moderate
Strength: Run defense
Weakness: Pass coverage
X-factor: Utah’s front four
UCLA will see a familiar face on the Utah defensive line this weekend – defensive end Kylie Fitts, who transferred from UCLA to Utah in August 2014. Now in his junior season, Fitts has made significant contributions to a solid Utah pass rush, notching 4.5 sacks on the year.
But make no mistake, even with Fitts’ help, this Utah pass rush is nothing close to the one that racked up a dizzying 10 sacks against UCLA last year. That 2014 Utah squad finished No. 1 in the nation with an average of 4.2 sacks per game. By comparison, this year’s Utah team averages 2.6 sacks per contest – good for fifth in the Pac-12, and just slightly ahead of UCLA’s 2.4 per game.
One of the main differences for the Utes this year is that they no longer have All-American defensive end Nate Orchard, who was picked in the second round of the NFL draft earlier this year. Orchard led the nation in sack rate last year – tallying 1.46 per game – and he notched four sacks and 9.5 tackles against UCLA.
With Orchard out of the equation, Utah’s pass rush has been run by committee, with five players tallying at least two sacks, but no player having more than six. The Bruins should be able to hold up pretty well, considering that the Utes neither stem nor blitz very often outside of third-down situations.
What the Bruins may have problems with is Utah’s run defense, which ranks No. 1 in the conference. A big reason for that success has been senior inside linebacker Gionni Paul, who has emerged as one of the best defenders in the Pac-12 this year. Through 10 games, Paul ranks third in the conference in total tackles and fifth in tackles for loss. UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen will need to watch out for Paul on short passes over the middle, as the linebacker has three interceptions this year.
In the end, no matter how well Paul plays, the X-factor for the Utes’ defense is their front four. Since Utah doesn’t call blitzes very often, the team needs the front four to create a solid push, and they usually do. But if UCLA’s offensive line – which ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 in pass protection – can match the strength of Utah’s front four, then the Bruins should be able to score with frequency.
Compiled by Matthew Joye, Bruin Sports senior staff.