Looking merely at the scores from last week, it would appear that UCLA football has a huge advantage over Arizona State this Saturday.
No. 9 UCLA (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) pummeled Arizona last week, 56-30, while Arizona State was trounced by USC, 42-14.
But one factor drastically threw those scores out of whack: turnovers. Arizona committed three of them; Arizona State committed four.
If not for turnovers, UCLA’s victory over Arizona may have looked a lot less dominant, and Arizona State’s loss would have been a lot less embarrassing.
Granted, turnovers are a key part of the game and can’t be ignored. But unforced turnovers are fool’s gold for a defense, and UCLA was gifted with two of them in the Arizona game – one off a high snap and one off a botched play-action. The Bruins turned those two unforced errors into two touchdowns.
“You can’t beat a good team with some of the errors we made today – unforced errors,” said Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez after the game. “You come upon those things, you’re not gonna win.”
Now the question is: Can the Bruins survive the Sun Devils without those kinds of gift-wrapped turnovers? If their run defense is the same as it was last week – allowing 353 yards on 59 attempts – maybe not.
“I think the foundation of your defense is tackling; and if you don’t tackle well, it really doesn’t matter who you play,” said defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, whose defense missed 21 tackles against Arizona.
The Bruins will have a difficult test in terms of run defense this week, facing Arizona State running back Demario Richard, who gashed USC for 131 yards on 9.4 yards per carry last week, with two touchdowns to boot. Standing at 5-feet-10, 220 pounds, Richard is a big back, built to break tackles. If the Bruin defense doesn’t solve its tackling problems quickly, it could be another rough day statistically.
But then there’s that X factor: turnovers. The Sun Devils are tied for dead last in the country with an average of 3.3 fumbles per game, and their quarterback – Mike Bercovicci – is tied for second-worst in the country with five fumbles on the year.
Last year, Bercovicci’s propensity for turnovers doomed Arizona State in its matchup against UCLA. Late in the first half, with Arizona State knocking on the door of a tying field goal or go-ahead touchdown, Bercovicci threw a 95-yard pick-six.
That one play changed the complexion of the game entirely. After Bercovicci’s pick-six, UCLA outscored Arizona State 35-10.
UCLA’s defense was still eviscerated by Arizona State in that game – to the tune of 626 yards – but in the end, the 62-27 final score was all that mattered to coach Jim Mora.
“Most coaches I know don’t pay much attention to yards, because yards don’t matter,” Mora said after last year’s Arizona State game. “Points are usually what they grade you on.”
And turnovers. According to a study by Athlon Sports, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 73 percent of the time.
Contributing reports from Matt Cummings, Bruin Sports senior staff.