I was ready to claim UCLA men’s basketball had a realistic shot at making the NCAA tournament, but then Cal had to come along and ruin it all.
Well, that’s not totally accurate. The Bruins shoulder full responsibility for the mess they now find themselves in.
After everything UCLA has been through this season – the humiliatingly lopsided halftime score against Kentucky, the five-game losing streak, the inability to win on the road – it had somehow still done enough to put itself in strong position to earn a tournament bid.
UCLA beat Stanford at home, upset the highly ranked Utah team, blew out Colorado, then earned another victory over Stanford on the road. Everything was set for the Bruins to find a way to salvage the season.
But they blew it.
Facing Cal, which junior forward/center Tony Parker admitted was very beatable, UCLA played like the underdog the whole time, eventually losing on a last-minute Cal 3-pointer.
With the loss, any bold take that the Bruins still have a shot at making the Big Dance seems more prayer than prediction.
Take a look at last year’s tournament teams. The lowest pre-tournament win total among teams that earned a berth is 13 by Cal Poly, but the general range for the No. 15 and No. 16 seeds is 19 to 21 wins.
Right now, UCLA has 14 wins with seven regular season games and at least one Pac-12 tournament game remaining. Two of these are against Oregon State and Oregon – teams that beat UCLA pretty handily last month. Then comes Arizona State and No. 7 Arizona on the road, followed by three home games against Washington, Washington State and USC to end the regular season.
In my estimation, the Bruins will win five of these seven, giving them 19 wins heading into the Pac-12 tournament. Given how poorly UCLA has performed against ranked opponents this season – one win and five losses – and the negative public perception surrounding the team after the Kentucky loss, I’d guess UCLA would need at least two additional wins in the Pac-12 tournament, including one over Arizona or Utah.
That would get the Bruins to 21 wins and put them right on par to earn an NCAA tournament bid. UCLA’s loss to Cal Saturday made this whole scenario all the more challenging, leaving the Bruins with an incredibly small margin of error.
They can’t afford any more mistakes.