Since the Big Ten Conference announced that it was exploring the possibility of conference expansion in December, rumors, speculation and general frenzy have infested college sports.
Will the legendary Notre Dame football program finally join a power conference after more than 100 years of independence?
Will the balance of power in college football shift away from the Southeastern Conference?
Who’s going to be seen as the victor when all the dust settles?
Nobody is quite sure exactly what to expect over the course of the next year or two, but one thing is certain: The landscape of college athletics is about undergo a face-lift.
“It’s pretty clear there will be changes,” Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott said. “I’m pretty confident in saying that the image of the Pac-10 will be dramatically different than it is today.”
The Pac-10 was the first conference to begin discussing expansion back in the summer of 2009, according to Scott. Initially, things weren’t quite as frenetic out west because the odds that the Big Ten would steal a team away from the west coast are miniscule at best. But now that attention has turned toward the prized teams in the Big 12 ““ namely Texas ““ UCLA’s conference has evolved into a major player in this national chess match.
With its Midwestern location and plethora of desirable teams, the Big 12 has emerged over the last week as the new center of attention. Because of its geography, the Big Ten, Pac-10 and even SEC could target teams from the Big 12 in their talks of expansion.
As recently as Thursday, Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn told the Boulder Daily Camera that he and other school officials have been led to believe the Pac-10 Conference is on the verge of inviting members of the Big 12 to join the conference. OrangeBloods.com, the Texas affiliate of Rivals.com, reported Sunday morning that Scott was prepared to formally present expansion options to the Pac-10 presidents, and that Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech could receive invitations as soon as Scott was given approval.
“The longer that we were together in Kansas City, it appeared that that rumor or speculation did have some validity to it,” Bohn told the Daily Camera as he left Big 12 spring meetings Thursday.
Phone calls to the Pac-10 offices and an e-mail sent to Scott were not returned as of press time, but Scott issued a written statement Thursday night in response to the reports.
“We have not developed any definitive plans,” Scott wrote. “We have not extended any invitations for expansion and we do not anticipate any such decisions in the near term.”
If the Pac-10 were indeed to add six teams from the Big 12, it would create a 16-team mega conference that would presumably be split into two subconferences of eight teams each. OrangeBloods.com reported on Thursday that conferences would be split, with the six newcomers joining Arizona and Arizona State in one subconference and the eight remaining Pac-10 teams comprising the other subconference.
There is another wrinkle. Scott has confirmed he has had discussions with Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe about collaborating with the conference in regards to media rights and expanding television partnerships. Both conferences’ television contracts are up in 2011, and the two already have a basketball series in place that creates marquee match-ups during the non-conference season. Scott told Rivals.com in late May that he and Beebe like the idea of a football television alliance featuring attractive non-conference matchups between schools in the two conferences.
Washington Athletic Director Scott Woodward also added to the discussion Thursday, telling the Seattle Times, “There is an enormous amount of speculation about conference expansion right now, and I think with the Pac-10 that anything is possible, all the way from remaining with the status quo, where we are today, to a full merger with the Big 12 and anything in between. All possibilities are viable and open for discussion.”
After the Big 12’s four days of meetings wrapped up, Beebe told the media Friday that he is “comfortable” the league will remain intact, but would not elaborate.
The strong considerations Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences are currently giving to expansion seems inexorably tied to and driven by the enormous media contracts each conference has signed or will sign to broadcast its athletics on television.
A conference that adds value to itself by adding teams with a large television following can influence the size and scope of a contract. That means more money for the network, more money for the conference and more money for each member institution.
“In the end, it’s about broadcast rights, (and) it’s about the money,” said Allen Sanderson, who lectures on the economics of sports at the University of Chicago.
“Whether for good or for bad, football drives these kinds of decisions.”
Several sources have reported that ESPN struck a deal with the Atlantic Coast Conference in May worth approximately $1.86 billion over 12 years, or $155 million per year, up from the conference’s previous television deal paying them $67 million per year. Yet these numbers pale in comparison to the SEC’s landmark 15-year, $3 billion television agreement with ESPN, ABC and CBS in 2008.
But perhaps the biggest news is the oldest. The Big Ten took what was then considered a major risk in 2007 and created its own Big Ten Network ““ devoted to nothing but Big Ten sports ““ on cable. This deal is estimated to bring in $2.8 billion over the 25-year agreement, in addition to the revenue obtained from signing a traditional deal with ESPN. By virtually all accounts, the network is considered to be an unequivocal success.
“It has really become a staple part of the conference, Marie Hardin, an associate professor of communications at Penn State, said. “Certainly the conference still has its contracts with ESPN, but the network provides exposure for a lot of sports that otherwise wouldn’t get the kind of exposure they are able to get.”
It will be the Pac-10’s turn to negotiate when their current television deal expires after the 2011-2012 school year, which helps explain the frenzied expansion talk occurring now. Television executives at both ESPN and Fox declined comment regarding interest in signing on with the Pac-10 in 2012.
Scott was named commissioner nine months ago to bring a pair of “fresh eyes” from outside college athletics to the conference that could specifically tackle these negotiations. He said that the conference is looking at expansion “very seriously.”
“There’s an awful lot at stake economically, exposure-wise and in terms of the overall position of the conference going forward,” he said.
The Pac-10, then, has a variety of options and they have hired Creative Arts Agency as a “strategic partner” to help them analyze their next move.
This is where the speculation begins.
Sanderson believes that conferences like the Pac-10 could add either two or six teams to bring the total to 12 or 16, respectively. The conference could then sign either a traditional contract, presumably of increased value, create its own network, or do both.
“We all believe that the Pac-10 is currently as undervalued as any conference,” UCLA Athletic Director Dan Guerrero said. “So when we talk about the opportunity of it being our turn at bat, we anticipate that we will be able to strike a very, very lucrative (television contract), however you define that.”
Scott was clear about what he wants out of the upcoming contract and listed three components: revenue, increased national exposure for football and basketball, and exposure and availability for Olympic sports.
“We are going to be building a business plan (with Creative Arts Agency) for a Pac-10 Network,” he confirmed.
And although he listed academic, geographic, athletic and cultural compatibility as important concerns, Scott was also clear about his top priority when examining potential teams to add.
“First and foremost, you are only going to look at schools that add exponential value, not linear value, because linear value doesn’t really add a lot if you have more mouths to feed,” he said. “One plus one has to equal three.”