Coach Ben Howland made a good point at his Tuesday press conference ““ right now it’s just as hard to predict which basketball team will finish last in the Pac-10 as it is to predict which one will finish first.
I agree with him. There’s no truly dominant player in the league, and no team stands out as an offensive or defensive juggernaut. That means that momentum, motivation and consistency could make the difference this year in the Pac-10.
So this week really is a turning point for the Bruins, as they prepare for a huge test on Saturday against USC.
Howland’s team has a chance to pick up some significant momentum in this meeting with the Trojans ““ or to slide further down the conference standings.
In their last road trip, the Bruins showed how good they can be with a clutch overtime win at Berkeley, and then showed how bad they can be with a sloppy loss at Stanford.
Howland wants his players to be more reliable. He’s unhappy with their fundamentals ““ blockouts, jump stops and passing ““ and he’s demanding sharper performances. He said Tuesday that his players need to learn from their mistakes. Everyone on the team needs to stop turning the ball over.
“Guys who turn it over are going to play less,” Howland said bluntly.
The team will have had a full week of practice to address these concerns before Saturday’s showdown. The USC game is the biggest UCLA has played so far this season, for several reasons.
First, a win would give the Bruins the type of momentum and confidence they’ll need to stay alive in the Pac-10. The Trojans have a very solid team.
USC boasts an athletic roster, and a savvy point guard in senior Mike Gerrity, a kind of college basketball grandpa; he’ll turn 24 this summer, and USC is the third different college of his basketball career. The team also features Alex Stepheson, a North Carolina transfer who spurned UCLA as a senior at Harvard-Westlake High School, and then again when he transferred.
The Trojans would be certain contenders for an NCAA tournament bid had they not banned themselves from the postseason. The ban stems from the O.J. Mayo situation, and it means that games like Saturday’s are the most important remaining on the Trojans’ schedule.
“We’ll get their best game of the year here on Saturday,” Howland said. “That’s just the nature of the rivalry.”
Besides simple momentum, this game will also have important implications in the Pac-10 race. If UCLA can stay above .500 through this stretch of Pac-10 play, I believe the team will have a chance to compete for a title in the final weekends of the season. I know that sounds crazy, but I really don’t see any team distancing itself from the Pac-10 before those last weekends.
Even in 2008, when UCLA essentially had a team of NBA stars, the Bruins did not clinch the league title until the very last weekend of the season. In that season, we knew the Pac-10 race would be a battle between the Kevin Love-led Bruins and Brook Lopez’s Stanford team.
In 2010 it’s anyone guess. Some say Cal, but the Bears looked pretty flawed against UCLA. On paper, Washington may have the most talent, but they’ve already fallen to 1-3 in the league. UCLA is in the picture, but now more than ever they need to take games one at a time.
That starts Saturday. There’s absolutely no way to know how this will all shake out, but if the Bruins grind through tough games, and pick up more wins than losses, they will be playing meaningful basketball in late February and early March.
And, remember, this is still UCLA-USC. I know it’s all strange and unfamiliar, with UCLA’s out-of-conference woes and the weak state of the Pac-10. But it’s still a true rivalry game. Pauley will shake and The Den will roar. Things will be loud and crazy. UCLA will have a chance to capture a huge victory.
I’ll see you there.
E-mail Allen at sallen@media.ucla.edu.