When President Barack Obama was whisked into the White House on the strength of 9.5 million votes more than his nearest rival, Democrats happily pronounced the death of the Republican Party and the birth of a new age of liberalism.
High in their minds was the idea that the sudden burst of enthusiasm of black and young people for Obama meant that there was a silent minority of Democrats who were finally ready to assert themselves after a long period of dormancy. After sweeping Obama into the presidency, these minorities were expected to remain at the forefront of a sustained Democratic charge that would all but remove the Republicans from the reigns of government.
In Nov. 3’s special elections, these newfound minorities failed their first test of devotion. In New Jersey, a state that recently gave Obama a 16-point victory, the Democratic incumbent fell to his Republican challenger in a landslide as black and independent voters pulled a disappearing act and failed to return to the polls. At 49-44, three visits and five campaign stops from Obama for the candidate were still not enough to save the day for the Democrats.
Then, in the swing state of Virginia, which Obama also won, the Republican candidate bested his opponent by an astounding 18 points, dislodging the Democrats after eight years in the governor’s office there. It is worth mentioning that this blowout occurred only four years after the very same men competed for the attorney general’s office, and all that separated victor from vanquished was a mere 360 votes.
What does this turn of events augur for Democrats?
For one thing, it dramatically scales down the proportions that the hope-changers attributed to the 2008 election. For people in search of a hero, the election of the first black presidential candidate afforded a perfect opportunity to claim that something big was afoot in the electorate ““ something sea-changing.
To others, then and now, this seemed like a classic case of overreaching. Sure, one candidate was black, and there is a certain amount of excitement that goes with that. But after a two-year race, one would think that the idea of having a black president had had ample time to sink in when people finally cast their ballots.
Considering everything else that seemed to converge around a Democratic candidate, from the financial crisis to George W. Bush’s vast unpopularity to a toothless Republican candidate, Obama’s election now looks a virtual fait accompli.
It is what has happened since the election that makes it worth remembering. The era of good feelings came and went. After a brief period of post-election jubilation, reality set in like a blow to the head. In what felt like the blink of an eye, we found ourselves saddled with a mountain of debt and unemployment soared to new heights not seen in decades. (It is now in double-digits.)
Despite a willing army of pundits trying their best to prove that Obama inherited these problems, some have not been able to shake the feeling that he must have had something to do with them. It does not help that the near-trillion-dollar stimulus package has had almost no short-term impact.
On top of this, Democrats are still trying their darndest to pass dramatic health-care legislation by the end of the year ““ over the will of the majority ““ and they are promising new taxes to help them carry out this vision.
Obama and the country now seem to be moving in parallel universes. When the financial crisis set in, the peoples’ focus shifted to matters of life and death. Will I lose my job? Will my house be safe? Will I have anything left for my retirement?
As they are grappling with these concerns, Obama is trying to capitalize on the goodwill left over from his “historic” election. Health-care reform, NAFTA, solar panels and wind farms ““ all these are foreign to people who are just trying to stay afloat amid the rising tide of unemployment, deficits and debt.
The Virginia and New Jersey elections were the first actual confirmations of the cognitive disconnect separating Main Street from Washington. Really, though, it has been palpable for quite some time in the forms of tea parties, town halls and talk radio. Washington either was not paying attention or didn’t care enough to stop what they were doing.
All of this has grave implications for Democrats going forward. Above all, it shows that Obama’s star power is a limited commodity. While it won him the presidency, it does not translate to victories for other Democrats ““ a fact that makes supporting Obama’s health-care plan all the more frightening for anyone soon to come up for reelection.
While it is now clear that the New Jersey and Virginia elections were victories for Republicans, no Democrat could help but try to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. As is her wont, Nancy Pelosi ignored all reality as she pretended one victory in New York made up for the two significant losses, exclaiming, “We won last night!”
The most entertaining line of post-election spin was that nothing else mattered besides the fact that a Democrat was elected to the NY-23 ““ a district that was blown all out of proportion in the weeks leading up to the election.
That ultra-liberal New York elected a Democrat in this economy was about as shocking as if a segregationist had been elected to a seat in Georgia at the time of Jim Crow. Indeed, it was not until true-blood Republicans began criticizing pseudo-Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava that the election began being termed a close call.
To borrow a phrase from Elton John, the American people are like a “candle in the wind” ““ they never know who to cling to when the rain sets in. The rain set in back in November 2008, and people clung to Barack Obama. Now the wind has shifted to the other side and they are going with Republicans. This would not be happening if Obama’s election were really as momentous as it was hyped up to be.
With the myth of Obama’s game-changing election now dispelled, Democrats have lost their safety net. Absent the comforting notion that they would be safe if they just followed Obama’s lead, congressional Democrats have to think twice before signing their names to another boondoggle that lacks popular support ““ i.e., health care. Unless they learn to stay with the people instead of Obama, I would not want to be in their camp when the voters get their chance to speak.
Hell hath no fury like a voter scorned.
E-mail Pherson at apherson@media.ucla.edu. Send general comments to viewpoint@media.ucla.edu.