If patterns, trends and history hold any bearing on Bruin football, betting men should load themselves into their cars, hop on the I-15 and throw their life savings on the UCLA v. Cal game this weekend.
All in on UCLA.
History, at least, strongly suggests the Bruins will upset Cal at home on Saturday.
Coming into the critical game, the teams that share the same general colors and fight songs have somehow managed to stay consistent each of the last nine years.
From 2000 onward, the home team has won each game in the series. It’s a pattern that even a senior like cornerback Alterraun Verner struggles to explain.
“It’s probably just a comfort level on both teams,” Verner said.
“We rallied back at our place two years ago where they could have definitely beat us, and we rallied as a team to get that one. Last year we were close to getting them, but then they rallied at the end. I don’t know. It’s kind of hard to explain. I don’t know, but we’re definitely not playing that like an advantage to us in this game.”
Verner is alluding to the last two games in the series that may still remain fresh in the memories of some UCLA upperclassmen.
Although Verner attributed UCLA’s last win over Cal to a team effort, it was he who made the play of the game.
With less than 1:33 remaining, Cal was driving inside the UCLA 30 on the verge of posting the game-winning score.
On third-and-six, Verner picked off Cal quarterback Nate Longshore’s pass and returned it 76 yards for a game-sealing touchdown.
A year later, the Golden Bears’ “rally” took the form of a 24-point explosion in the fourth quarter to blow what was a four-point game wide open in favor of Cal.
Redshirt senior Logan Paulsen, who will be playing in his fifth game against Cal, remembers back even farther than Verner.
Three years ago in Berkeley, Cal’s DeSean Jackson helped expand an 11-point Cal lead late in the third quarter with a 72-yard punt return for a touchdown that sealed the game for the Bears.
Paulsen’s been around long enough to see a particular pattern start to develop in this series.
“Normally the team that gets that big play wins,” he said.
Simple enough.
Yet senior players also suggested that the see-saw-like nature of this series has helped bolster what was already a rivalry of sorts.
Of course, to players, it doesn’t compare to USC, but perhaps it helps explain the nine-year trend.
“I definitely have a little chip on my shoulder every time I play Cal just because they are in the area and you know a lot of people on the team,” Verner said.
“That tradition of us and them definitely makes this a heated rivalry that probably doesn’t get played up to as much, but it’s something that we all want, to beat Cal. They are definitely up there in the teams you want to beat every year.”
Coach Rick Neuheisel, for his part, says he “has great respect” for the history of the match-up, but really he’s more concerned about not falling to 0-3 in conference.
“It’s a great series,” he said. “It’s an important game to both teams. None of those nine matter to this one.”
And “this one” certainly means a lot. Both the UC schools have started their Pac-10 season with a disappointing 0-2 and could fall out of the race for a conference title if they lose again Saturday.
“We hit a wall these first two conference games we lost,” senior wide receiver Terrence Austin said. “We’ve got to get over this wall.”