In the world of politics, too much confidence can be a dangerous thing. History has shown that electoral landslides are frequently turned upside-down in just a few years when overconfidence inspires arrogance, overreaching and eventually political suicide.
The arc of the Republican Party in the past few years exemplifies this trend. After Bush was elected in 2000, the party also had significant winnings in Congress, picking up a combined 11 seats in the House and six in the Senate in 2002 and 2004. But in 2006, after the Republican Party began coming apart at the seams from overspending and corruption, Republicans lost 31 seats in the House and six in the Senate, thereby losing their 12-year control of Congress. This pattern was compounded in the 2008 elections, when they lost more seats in both chambers.
Historically speaking, the last few years have been fairly unremarkable; with only four exceptions, every president since Lincoln has lost seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
The Democrats of the 111th Congress are not challenging history. Confident in their current electoral victories, they have already declared the obsolescence of the GOP and begun running Washington with a sense that they will never be leaving it.
James Carville, a Democratic strategist, arrogantly suggests in the title of his new book that Democrats will rule for the next 40 years.
Hubris is likely to derail the momentum that the party is now feeling. Like the Republicans from 2004 to 2008, the Democratic leadership has allowed itself to become self-indulgent and contented.
In the first 100 days, President Obama upped the ante of George Bush’s trillion-dollar deficit and raised it to something many times that.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the first two months of his presidency produced laws that will cost $1.2 trillion in the next 10 years.
When it counts everything, the office estimates we will incur $9.3 trillion worth of debt in the next decade.
The first three months were marked by a dizzying combination of spending, deficits and bailouts that will not only plunge us into financial oblivion but which will also create disequilibrium in the Democratic Party.
President Obama should know that it is never wise in politics to try for so much so soon; even amid a clarion call for “change,” most people need time to readjust to a new administration before they are prepared to deal with sweeping new alterations in their lives.
In a time of so much turmoil, all most people want is a promise of stability.
But stability is not foreseeable given our current situation. Unwittingly, or perhaps indifferently, Obama has handed over the reins of government to Congress and put us at the mercy of people who care even less about compromising with adversaries.
On the stimulus package, he was content to supply the broad brush strokes and leave the details to the imaginations of Congress’ queen and king, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid. What we got was $819 billion with very little that’s stimulative.
Without the president reining it in, this Congress is destined to do what Congresses before it have reliably done after coming into power: polarize itself so much that it is forced into exile in 2010.
Arlen Specter’s defection is causing Democrats to salivate over what may come if they have a filibuster-proof majority.
If their wish comes true, they will be able to prevent Republicans from having any discernible influence on matters of the utmost importance ““ even something as crucial as the future of health care.
In this case, law-making would become equivalent to an all-white panel determining the fate of a black man during segregation.
Why isn’t there more clamor over what Congress and the president are doing?
Simply put, the government is enjoying a grace period. People are confused by the financial crisis and their incertitude makes them willing to let the government dabble in new things, even if they are personally opposed to many of them. But people’s generosity will not last forever.
In six months’ time, the high approval ratings of the president and the relatively high ratings of Congress will fade if they do not learn to temper themselves and avoid polarizing steps for fleeting gains.
As things like universal health care, amnesty for illegal immigrants and the Fairness Doctrine begin to be discussed, people will begin to pray for a return to normalcy. Ad hominem attacks on Republicans and thoughtful Democrats will alienate moderate voters.
Moderation is a matter of conscience, as well as a matter of good strategy for our current government.
Unless the Democrats learn the virtues of divided government and begin to show restraint, the democratic process and their own party will be undermined. Pundits and politicians will be ruing the day when they announced the extinction of the Republican Party and grew complacent.
If liberal arrogance bothers you, e-mail Pherson at apherson@media.ucla.edu.