When given the choice between an incumbent mayor and nine political unknowns, Los Angeles unsurprisingly re-elected Antonio R. Villaraigosa on March 3 during the Los Angeles city elections.
What was surprising was the small number of votes that he received compared to what was expected ““ an unexpected 55 percent of the vote. However, this percentage does not necessarily allude to a general sense of dissatisfaction among voters.
“The turnout was low,” said UCLA visiting public policy Professor Michael Dukakis.
While most mayoral elections result in a turnout of 24 percent, this year only yielded 13 percent, according to the unofficial election results from the office of the Los Angeles City Clerk.
Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic presidential nominee, said he blames the low turnout on the current economic crisis.
“When the needs go up, the turnout goes down,” he said.
Nevertheless, the poor attendance of city residents at the polls can also be attributed to apathy toward this year’s elections.
“People couldn’t really get excited about it,” said UCLA law Professor Jonathan Zasloff.
He added that this lack of enthusiasm was related to Villaraigosa’s cautious campaign strategy.
While the other candidates attended numerous neighborhood forums and panel discussions, Villaraigosa refused to participate in any debate.
Thus, a combination of this strategy and a lack of a better-qualified candidate led to his successful, though not overwhelmingly positive, re-election, Zasloff said.
“Given no alternative, the voters will accept,” he said. “They just don’t see what he’s done ““ it’s not dislike.”
With few accomplishments in his first term ““ there was a failed attempt to oversee the Los Angeles Unified School District and a promotion of water conservation ““ Villaraigosa has not left much of a legacy thus far. This will have to change if he is to pursue his gubernatorial aspirations, Zasloff said.
One such legacy could be Villaraigosa’s “Subway to the Sea,” which would extend the Metro Red Line from Wilshire Boulevard to Santa Monica. The $6 billion project is an attempt to deal with the traffic congestion problems that plague the city.
“He needs to take a high degree of mayoral leadership in this,” Dukakis said. “It’s a great opportunity, but it will be a huge challenge to manage the project and complete the line.”
Dukakis also said Villaraigosa should address the problem of distressed housing in Los Angeles.
With a designation by Wells Fargo as a “severely distressed housing market,” L.A. County will be forced to deal with tighter mortgage restrictions. However, Dukakis said the crisis could have a positive effect on Villaraigosa’s possible gubernatorial campaign.
“It’s a huge problem, but an opportunity that he could take advantage of,” he said. “To take advantage of some housing that could be turned into affordable housing, that would put people to work and improve the quality of life.”
However, it is clear that he will need to win over a greater amount of the L.A. electorate if he wants to be a threat in the June 2010 gubernatorial primary election, Zasloff said.
“There is no big base in Los Angeles (for Villaraigosa) in what appears to be a Democrat-crowded primary,” he said. “So he’s got a lot of work to do; he’s certainly not able to count on a big push from Los Angeles.”
If history is any indication, Villaraigosa’s chances of a successful gubernatorial run are slim. In the past 100 years, no mayor of any major city in California has ever been governor, Zasloff said. This fact, combined with his lack of a strong base in his home city, could be a major obstacle in his path.
However, the current Democratic candidate pool could help to increase his chances.
“The Democratic field is so weak, so no one is excluded,” said Mark Kleiman, UCLA professor of public policy. “No candidate is strong, so there may not be someone stronger than Villaraigosa.”
Candidates that Villaraigosa would have to face include former Gov. Jerry Brown, current Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom.
Some people have doubts about whether Villaraigosa is ready to take on such a high-ranking position. Despite his current position, there are questions about how much experience he has gained while in Los Angeles.
“He needs to make that decision,” Dukakis said. “It’s best to spend a couple of terms in an executive office before moving on.”
Mayor Villaraigosa’s office was unable to be reached for comment.