Expectations for President Barack Obama’s presidency have risen to a boil since the month of his election. Following the inauguration the president has worked to enact new policy, reverse failed Bush policies and has pushed for a new stimulus plan that he hopes will work to upright the capsized economy. However, regardless of Obama’s recent policy efforts, the president’s popularity will be seriously challenged by the difficulty of solving important issues quickly.
Public opinion is a fickle thing, and the challenges that Obama faces will likely grow while the now universal support for the Democratic Party may fade to a less one-sided contest in the 2010 election.
In the excitement over the inauguration and seemingly quick action, we have forgotten a cardinal rule in politics: Most serious and controversial problems are often fixed at a snail’s pace.
Indeed, Obama has already faced challenges in getting his economic stimulus through Congress. If his plan fails to have the desired effect, there is the important issue of what will happen to his widespread public favorability.
The problems already facing the stimulus have shown that getting us out of the recession will be a long and tedious process which will see great debate over each step taken. While this debate is necessary, the Democrats and Obama will be the first ones to feel the pressure of the electorate. Indeed, the now-universal support may fade and the Democratic members of Congress may face challenges in the 2010 election.
To be fair, the problems facing Obama are unrivaled in recent memory; yet this difficulty is unlikely to save his popularity. We Americans, as occasionally impatient people, will likely grow weary of economic worries far before the economy can be given due time to fix itself. The economy is likely to stay down in the foreseeable future, and Obama’s approval ratings will most likely reflect this.
For Obama, the problem of a struggling economy may be the first situation that could derail his popularity. One issue already under scrutiny is Obama’s stimulus bill, which in the House of Representatives saw a “vote … (of) 244-188, with Republicans unanimous in opposition despite Obama’s frequent pleas for bipartisan support;” the bill also faces changes in the Senate where Democrats have “conceded privately they will drop items that have drawn bipartisan criticism,” according to the Associated Press.
Also compounding the issue is a Gallup Poll released recently which shows that while 52 percent of American’s favor a stimulus package, only 38 percent of people believe it should be passed as proposed. The American people are already showing a difference in opinion with their president, and these differences may grow as time passes.
Powering Obama’s popularity is the grace period presidents have following their election. First-year undeclared life sciences student Ziva Shulaker expressed her views on Obama’s grace period, “I think he will have a bigger honeymoon period at the beginning of his presidency.”
As important as Obama’s election was, however, his “honeymoon” period may be hard-pressed to survive this economic recession.
Obama’s public opinion plight is partly mirrored by the problems facing the Democratic Party; especially the Democrat members of Congress who are up for reelection in 2010.
Polls in the past have indicated that it’s the trend of Americans to shy away from single-party governments for divided party control over government.
If the economic stimulus fails to have the desired effect, it seems likely that Americans may remember their preference for divided government, causing further problems for Democrats facing reelection. Democrats, who hold a 256-178 majority in the House of Representatives, will be held responsible for any problems they may encounter in the next few years. Knowing that we are in the midst of a recession, it may become more difficult for Democrats in Congress to hold such a vast majority.
Power is a fickle friend; on one hand, it’s why many people get into politics; however, it is also the reason they often grow out of favor with the public. Most presidents, upon entering office, are graced with a high popularity in the polls. When these presidents leave office, they often have either not done enough or have taken a wrong stance on a certain issue, causing the American people to be dissatisfied. Obama, and the Democrats in control of Congress, are likely to fall prone to this flipping in opinion that we typically go through on a four- or sometimes eight-year period.
E-mail Feeney at dfeeney@media.ucla.edu. Send general comments to viewpoint@media.ucla.edu.