Now it gets serious.
The heart of conference play finally presents a legitimate measuring stick for this year’s UCLA men’s basketball team.
The two Arizona schools saunter into Westwood this week, and for the first time since the Reagan administration, the Arizona State Sun Devils will enter Pauley Pavilion as the strongest team in the Grand Canyon State. The departure of former Arizona coach Lute Olson, coupled with the brilliant play of southpaw superstar James Harden, has allowed ASU to officially usurp the Wildcats as the best team in the desert.
They might even pass UCLA as the best team in the conference.
But first, there is today’s hors d’oeuvre, when the Wildcats challenge UCLA. Then, Saturday afternoon’s entree ““ a nationally televised main event against the rising Sun Devils.
Despite lacking the cachet of Olson’s past teams, Arizona still poses a formidable threat. It showcases two projected NBA lottery picks, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger, both of whom can give the Bruins fits. At 6 feet 7 inches and possessing a versatile NBA game, Budinger presents most teams with problems. The 6-10 Hill is more than a problem ““ he is a veritable nightmare.
A developing problem for UCLA has been a lack of depth at interior defense behind Alfred Aboya. Aboya has been plagued by Foulitis ““ fouling too much, too early ““ at times in his career. The Bruins will need him to remain on the floor to help defend Hill and Arizona State’s big man Jeff Pendergraph.
Bruins coach Ben Howland does not have the big, athletic bodies at his disposal that he has had in years past. The voids left by Russell Westbrook, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Kevin Love and even Lorenzo Mata have yet to be completely filled.
UCLA is simply not the same defensive force it has been.
Although defense is still a critical part of the team’s success, the Bruins rank a disappointing 36th in Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings. They were third, second and third in the last three seasons, respectively. Sure, UCLA is allowing just 58.3 points per game, but this is more of a function of the slow pace at which the Bruins play (248th in the country in tempo).
Amazingly, Arizona State plays even slower ““ they are 320th out of 344 teams in tempo. It’s safe to say this duel won’t wear out the Pauley Pavilion scoreboard. Look for a low-scoring, close contest that will hinge on critical defensive stops and timely Darren Collison baskets.
In others words, it will be a typical UCLA grinding battle.
On paper, Arizona State is the primary threat to UCLA’s Pac-10 dominance. The Sun Devils are No. 8 in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings and No. 5 in the Pomeroy rankings ““ the Michael Phelps of statistical polls.
ASU is No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency and features the conference’s best player, Los Angeles native James Harden.
Harden is projected to be one of the top picks in this year’s NBA draft. It will be interesting to see how Howland and Co. choose to defend him ““ he is averaging 23 points and nearly five assists per game. Harden struggled in the two meetings with UCLA last year, but that was against a superior defensive team than this year’s cast.
UCLA has ruled this conference for more than three years. The Bruins are 48-9 in league play in that span. They have won 21 of their last 22 home games against the Pac-10 (the lone blemish to USC last January). They sport a No. 7 ranking in the coaches’ poll.
Yet it’s impossible to watch the other elite teams in the country and not think this installment of UCLA basketball is riding on the coattails of the past Final Four teams. We know the Bruins are good, they just don’t look like a Somebody, a Contender.
An impressive sweep of the Arizona schools would answer many questions: Will they win the Pac-10 again? Are they a legitimate Final Four threat?
In the next three days, we will have some answers.
How confident are you the Bruins will sweep the Arizona schools? Let Taylor know at btaylor@media.ucla.edu.