As the final weekend of the regular season approaches, UCLA baseball is looking to improve its tournament aspirations and hopes the body of work the team has put together warrants an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Coming into the season as the preseason No. 1 team in the country, the Bruins (29-24, 11-10 Pac-10) might not have expected to find themselves sitting squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Yet, with three games remaining in the regular season, that’s the position the team finds itself in.
In earning an at-large bid, three main factors come into play: RPI, strength of schedule and overall record.
A team’s RPI ““ Ratings Power Index ““ is widely considered to be the most critical factor in determining whether a team receives a bid. The RPI is a statistical ranking that takes into account the team’s strength of schedule and overall record.
An RPI in the top 50 is considered a solid rating. Currently, the Bruins’ RPI is No. 45, a ranking built largely on the strength of a road win over then-No. 12 UC Irvine on May 13 and a series sweep of Washington State last weekend.
“A solid RPI is the No. 1 factor in making the tournament,” UCLA coach John Savage said. “What you strive for is a strength of schedule that you can win enough games to make it in the top 35-40 in the RPI. If you play well in conference, your RPI puts you in position to make the tournament.”
By comparison, California’s RPI is currently No. 21. Therefore, if the Bruins are able to take at least two of three games on the road this weekend against the Golden Bears, UCLA’s RPI will improve, increasing the team’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament.
UCLA and Cal are also currently tied for third place in the Pac-10, meaning a series win would jump the Bruins ahead in the conference standings.
One factor that could aid UCLA’s postseason hopes is the team’s tremendous strength of schedule. UCLA has played the toughest schedule in college baseball this season. Additionally, including UCLA, six of the top-10 teams, in terms of strength of schedule, play in the Pac-10 (UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington State, Cal and Oregon State).
Due to the difficulty of the Bruins’ schedule, the high level of competition present in the Pac-10, and the fact that the Bruins’ record is above .500 both in conference and overall, the Bruins seemingly sit in good position to make the tournament.
“We feel good about our team,” Savage said. “We had a good weekend where we needed to win all three games against Washington State, and we did.”
But the Bruins cannot rely on statistics alone to get into the tournament. Throughout the season, the team has failed to live up to the expectations warranted by the No. 1 preseason ranking and has been largely inconsistent.
To secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive season, the Bruins understand the importance this weekend holds.
“We need to play well this weekend at Cal,” Savage said. “Our main focus is on Friday night. We can’t look ahead or look at the scoreboard following how other teams are doing. We need to take care of business.”