As the UCLA baseball team enters the home stretch of the regular season, one has to wonder, given the expectations placed on this team, whether the Bruins have a realistic shot at making the playoffs and succeeding in the postseason if they do.
The team has not been able to hold up to the lofty No. 1 preseason Baseball America ranking, mainly due to inconsistent play.
The Bruins begin a tough stretch of games against Washington State, traditional powerhouse No. 12 Cal State Fullerton and No. 19 Cal to wrap up the season.
A deeper look at the team’s statistics can provide insight and identify the root of the Bruins’ subpar performance this season.
The team’s overall batting average on balls in play, which is a statistic that measures a player’s batting average based on the number of balls put in play without counting strikeouts, sacrifice flies or home runs, is .333. This means that, compared to the team’s overall batting average of .272, the number of balls put into play that are falling for hits is high for the Bruins.
A high average of this kind is usually an indicator of luck and porous opposing team defense. The Bruins’ figure of .333 is actually lower than the average .348 of all the other Pac-10 teams, suggesting that perhaps the Bruins are running into a bit of tough luck when facing opposing defenses.
However, the difference between UCLA’s balls in play average and batting average, .061, which is higher than the .045 difference among the conference, could also mean that the Bruins just aren’t making contact with the ball as well as other teams.
UCLA’s opponents’ balls in play average stands at .306, a figure that may indicate the UCLA defense is not playing up to its potential by not converting balls in play into outs. The Bruins rank fifth in the Pac-10 in errors committed but are tied for fifth in fielding percentage; the numbers provide no definitive answer as the Bruins rank in the middle of the pack in defense.
Another metric used to evaluate a team’s performance is its Pythagorean record, which is based on the number of runs scored and allowed throughout the season. This statistic is a better predictor of future success because runs often come in random bunches and skew a team’s record.
However, there are certain factors, such as strong relief pitching, that can tilt a team’s actual record north of its Pythagorean record. For instance, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored fewer runs than they allowed last season but still managed to win the National League West ““ their strong bullpen was a key to their success. This should be positive news for the Bruins; they’ve accumulated 26 wins and 23 losses. UCLA has scored 300 runs and allowed 260 this season, indicating a Pythagorean record of 28-21.
Upon further examination, the Bruins’ Pythagorean record in conference play of 9-9 roughly correlates to their actual 8-10 conference record. Both of these measures indicate that the Bruins are slightly better than their record indicates, but the small sample size of conference play may be a factor that will skew the results.
By examining the Bruins’ conference performance in the competitive Pac-10, we can gain further insight. As of May 8, UCLA ranked last in the conference in on-base plus slugging percentage, which quickly measures a hitter’s ability to reach base and hit for power. This lowly figure is largely due to the Bruins’ last place ranking in team average. The team actually ranks third in the conference in walks but also leads the league in strikeouts. This will cause a team’s average to be low because it’s hard to get hits and in turn manufacture runs when you aren’t making contact with the ball.
Some of the hitting struggles could also be due to the number of great pitchers in the Pac-10; the conference contains ESPN and USA Today nationally ranked No. 4 Arizona State, No. 16 Stanford, No. 19 Cal, No. 23 Arizona, as well as unranked two-time defending national champion Oregon State. All of these teams possess solid pitching, and, actually, unranked Washington leads the conference in team ERA at 3.5.
Additionally the Bruins’ pitching staff, while solid, has stumbled a bit in conference play. Team ace, junior lefty Tim Murphy, saw his strikeouts per nine innings fall from 11.48 overall to 10.3 in conference play, his walks per nine innings rise from 3.66 to 4.64 and his home runs per nine innings rise from .945 to 1.64, as of May 8. Pitchers Brendan Lafferty, Matt Drummond and Gavin Brooks also possess strong strikeout rates, which should bode well for future games, even though most of their numbers have dropped in conference play.
Despite this tough competition, the Bruins have a chance to run the table, make it into the playoffs and go on a deep run in the College World Series. Their inconsistent play during the season can be partially explained by bad luck, inconsistent defense and some high strikeout rates among the batters, but at the same time there are signs pointing toward future success.
Channeling the positive aspects of the team, including a high walk rate and a power pitching staff, suggest that a strong run to end the season in a manner similar to last year’s team is not out of the question.