Though the bulk of the primaries and caucuses are remnants of the past, the excitement and intensity of the election show no sign of subsiding in the near future.
Senator John McCain, R-Ariz., with 1,325 delegates, surpassed the required number of delegates to secure a nomination in the primaries and caucuses that took place on March 4. But, the Democratic race remains close, with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., narrowly with 1,618 delegates to Clinton’s 1,479. Pennsylvania, the next state primary, is not until April 22.
Having a nominee so much earlier than the Democratic Party could give the Republican Party an advantage, said Kevin Roberts, spokesman for the California Republican Party.
“The party can unite around McCain,” Roberts said. “He can get his campaign ramped up for November while the Democrats are still clawing each other’s eyes out and trying to determine who (their candidate will be) in November.”
Roberts added that the Democrats may find themselves sacrificing significant financial resources that they could spend campaigning in more moderate states because they need to maintain the electoral votes of traditionally Democratic states such as California.
Some disagree that the lack of a Democratic nominee could give an edge to the Republicans. Brian Brokaw, spokesman for the California Democratic Party, said he sees the continued competition between the two candidates as beneficial to the Democratic Party.
“The fact that the race is still going on shows that the Democrats nationally are very excited and motivated by our two candidates,” Brokaw said. “We’re seeing record turnouts. Democrats are coming out to vote, state after state.”
The Republican Party having a decided nominee helps the Democratic candidates as they move their campaigns forward and focus on the general election, Brokaw added.
“Each of the candidates is also beginning to distinguish him or herself from John McCain,” Brokaw said. “We can now focus our energies on John McCain and really (begin) to tell his story from our perspective. (We can) show he would offer nothing more than a third Bush term.”
Brokaw said there is a chance the decision will come down to the superdelegates at a brokered convention, but there are still some very big states that have yet to vote.
“Chances are we will have a pretty good idea of who our nominee will be before the convention,” he added.
McCain is also looking forward to November’s general election as he continues to campaign, Roberts said. He is developing a “50-state strategy” and planning on campaigning competitively across the nation.
“McCain is certainly in full campaign mode,” he added. “The uniqueness of McCain’s candidacy will make him competitive in a lot of traditionally Democratic areas.”
Roberts said he expects McCain to come to California to campaign and raise financial resources.
“He intends to be competitive out here in California, which will make it a more exciting presidential race than has been seen in a while,” he added.
Roberts also said having McCain as a presumed nominee allows the Republican Party to unify at the local and national level.
He added the California Republican Party can begin making additions to its staff, putting together a state campaign strategy, and choosing areas to focus on in California.
“We as a state party can look at the areas where we really want to focus resources,” he said.
While the continued indecision on the Democratic side is generating excitement and motivating voters, it may also have had an impact on the tone of the campaign, said Shaun Bowler, professor of political science at UC Riverside.
Bowler said some of Clinton’s recent statements have made her seem mean and willing to win at any cost, which may make voters uncomfortable.
“It’s clear that she is turning people off from her by resorting to “˜Karl Rove politics,'” he added.
Bowler said using negative tactics could damage her campaign, particularly in key states such as Michigan and Florida, and cause her to lose vital support from the superdelegates. “She won in Michigan (the first time), but Obama wasn’t on the ballot,” he said. “What’s going to happen next time?”
He added, “Both candidates have a big appeal to a lot of people,” though he predicted Obama will hold onto his lead through the convention.
“Right now it looks like the wind is at Obama’s back,” he said, but added there is no way to be certain. “Last-minute choices and events make a big difference.”
Brokaw said the democratic process, including the use of superdelegates, was put in place for a reason. “Ultimately, the right choice will be made.”