Watching the primary results come in on Tuesday night, I had only one thought: This campaign is about to get ugly, fast.
The importance of Tuesday’s primaries in Texas and Ohio cannot be overstated; had Obama won these contests his nomination would have essentially been wrapped up. However, as has been seen following Clinton’s wins in both states, the night rejuvenated her campaign, meaning this election could result in a brokered Democratic convention in August, which has not happened since 1952.
That said, if the Democrats want any chance of taking back the White House, the party as a whole must publicly unify around Democratic platforms and discourage the use of negative ads for the remainder of the primary process.
Perhaps Howard Dean, who is chairman of the Democratic National Committee, former governor of Vermont and presidential candidate, expressed this idea best in a press release he put out Wednesday: “As we head towards November, our nominee must have the united support of a strong Democratic Party that’s ready to fight and ready to beat John McCain.”
There are, I believe, a few key efforts the Democratic Party can make to avoid a public divide and appear unified. Foremost, the party must make a substantial effort to prevent both sides from “going negative.”
Several days before the Texas primary, the Clinton campaign began running what has become known as the “3 a.m.” ad. In essence, the ad asks voters whom they would want to pick up the phone in the White House at 3 a.m. in the event of a national crisis. Without saying so, the ad suggests Clinton would be the better candidate to “pick up the phone.”
In the end, the ad seems to have worked. Exit polling done by ABC News showed that Clinton fared far better than Obama by 23 points among voters who decided whom to vote for within the last days before the election.
The problem really is not so much that the Clinton campaign decided to air the ad; rather, the problem is that it was so effective in appealing to voters’ fears. Because of its success, watchers of the campaign can assume that such ads will become more common in the coming weeks.
That said, the Democratic Party cannot allow for this happen on either side of the campaign. Every time Clinton or Obama airs a negative ad explicitly pointing out a weakness of the other candidate, Sen. John McCain, the now official Republican candidate for president, can add that to his chest of arguments to use against the Democratic nominee in November. It’s bad enough that the Democrats have not been able to unite around one nominee, but to essentially give the Republicans points in a debate is just bad politics. The best option for the party would be for each candidate to focus only on his or her strengths, not the other’s weaknesses.
Also, the Democrats must come together as a party and unify around basic Democratic values, even though they cannot come together around one candidate. As Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza noted on his blog, Dean “must find a way to keep his party from splitting at the seams in the months before the national convention in late August.”
Indeed, while the Democrats still don’t have a nominee for the general election, there are several positions that can unite the party in the meantime. For instance, Democratic leaders around the country can actively point out to voters that John McCain is a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq. According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll done in February, 64 percent of adults in the U.S. oppose the war in Iraq. That is 64 percent of the American electorate that Democrats can attract, without having a nominee.
Furthermore, Democrats can point out that even though President Bush’s tax cuts have thus far had adverse effects on the U.S. economy, John McCain continues to support them, and even said they should be made permanent.
There are seven weeks remaining until the Pennsylvania primaries. That is seven weeks in which the Democratic Party could splinter and fall apart. Or, the Democrats could be smart and make the best of this time by coming together around Democratic values before they can unify around a single candidate.
E-mail Margolis at mmargolis@media.ucla.edu if you believe party unity should trump political points. Send general comments to viewpoint@media.ucla.edu.