Election may depend on few

For the first time since the establishment of the superdelegate system in 1984, the votes of the superdelegates may decide the presidential nominee at this year’s Democratic Party National Convention.

Twenty percent of the approximately 4,000 delegates at the Democratic convention attend as superdelegates, or individuals uncommitted to a candidate, said Henry Brady, a professor of political science at UC Berkeley. The Republican Party sends some unpledged delegates to the convention but does not have a superdelegate system, he added.

The Democratic superdelegates are prominent and involved party members who have the freedom and responsibility to vote for the candidate of their choice at the national convention, said Brian Brokaw, the communications director for the California Democratic Party.

The superdelegate system “was instituted in 1984 because there was a feeling that the system was not necessarily producing the best candidates,” Brady said. “Sometimes the voice of the people led to extreme or populist candidates,” he added, citing George McGovern and Jimmy Carter as examples.

The diverse group consists of Democratic congressmen, members of the Democratic National Committee, former U.S. presidents and vice presidents, local elected officials and grassroots activists, Brokaw added.

In most of the recent elections the superdelegates have not played a significant role because the winning candidate gathered enough delegates prior to the convention, Brokaw said.

For example, John Kerry secured the nomination before the convention in the 2004 election, as did Al Gore in 2000, Brokaw said.

This year, the close race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is leading to speculation among political analysts and the media that the votes of the superdelegates could sway the results of the convention.

“No election has been this close going down to the wire,” Brokaw said. “We are in somewhat uncharted territory here ““ but (the) system was put in place for a reason.”

Brady also said the near tie between Obama and Clinton will increase the importance of the superdelegates.

“It’s hard to figure out how one will get the nomination without the superdelegates,” Brady said.

Though many have already endorsed one of the candidates, others remain publicly undecided about which candidate they will support at the convention, Brokaw said.

“It’s the uncommitted ones in particular that both campaigns are reaching out to aggressively,” he said.

“It’s not uncommon for a superdelegate to have one message from (former President) Clinton and John Kerry, each lobbying on behalf of their preferred candidate.”

Though the preferences of the superdelegates are not made official until the convention, many polling organizations have compiled tentative counts showing the support each candidate will receive from various superdelegates at the convention, Brady said.

The counts currently show Clinton as more popular among the superdelegates, he said, but added that the numbers are in no way conclusive or certain.

“If I were a superdelegate, I could announce that I’m for Hillary today and tomorrow announce that I’m for Barack,” he said.

The superdelegate system is specific to the Democratic Party. Though the Republican Party does send some unpledged delegates to the Republican National Convention, they do not send as many as in the superdelegate system, said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for the California Republican Party.

Each state sends the state party chairman, a Republican National Committeeman, and a Republican National Committeewoman to the convention as uncommitted delegates, Roberts added.

Prior to Super Tuesday, the close Republican race led to talk of a brokered convention and a more important role for the unpledged delegates, he said.

But at this stage in the election process, it seems as though they will not be as important at the Republican convention as at the Democratic convention, Roberts added.

“Now that McCain is presumed to be the presidential nominee, the uncommitted delegates will not play as significant a role,” he said.

Unlike the unpledged delegates in the Democratic Party, the Republican equivalents to superdelegates do not endorse candidates prior to the national convention.

“The RNC is going to unite the party behind whoever the nominee is,” Roberts said. “In a contested primary, it’s not appropriate to endorse (a candidate prior to the convention) so that the (voice) of the voters is really known.”

Just as the possibility of a brokered convention on the Republican side proved false with the progression of the election, the primaries coming up in the next few months will determine if a candidate can gain enough delegates to win the nomination and the role that the superdelegates will play, Brokaw said.

“Time will tell whether or not it will come down to a convention where superdelegates play an important role,” he added. If the Democratic party is still unsure of its nominee by the convention, there will be much campaigning in person for those unpledged delegates at the convention, Roberts said.

“It would be a very active convention, to say the least,” he said.

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