Logically, I have to think the Patriots will probably win on Sunday. Picking the Giants wouldn’t be so much of an informed football decision as it would be a writing exercise. The Pats have won 18 straight; picking against them means trying to see what reasons I can come up with to talk myself into the Giants.
Well, I’ve been driving the Whomever-the-Patriot-are-playing-this-week Bandwagon all season, and I’m not jumping off when we’re 0-18. So let’s see what I’ve got:
On defense, the Giants have the pass rushers in the front seven and the aggressive blitz packages to disrupt NFL MVP/TMZ.com star Tom Brady. When the two teams played in Week 17, the Giants only got one sack, but they got close to Brady often enough to disrupt some of the Patriots’ offensive rhythm. When the Jaguars’ defense played conservatively against the Patriots, Brady torched them. No way the Giants make that mistake.
The Giants’ offense is a tougher sell. Eli Manning, for all the talk about how he’s finally “turned the corner,” is still Eli Manning. He struggled at the end of that Week 17 game when Bill Belichick took off the gloves and started blitzing and I can’t fight the feeling that Manning could still implode at any time.
But if he were going to, Lambeau Field at -25 degree windchill would have been a pretty good place. Manning played well there. Both the Giants’ coaches and Eli seem to understand that he’s not his brother Peyton and he’s not going to be. He’s making shorter throws and managing a surprisingly talented offense.
The offensive line has kept Manning upright, and Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw together give the Giants a solid running game. While Plaxico Burress’ suggestion that the Giants’ receivers are as good as the Patriots’ is ridiculous, Plax himself has been very, very good and Amani Toomer, Steve Smith and all the rest have made some plays. Tight end Kevin Boss has made everyone forget about Jeremy Shockey, which is a very good thing. Not only has the offense not slipped, but as Jerramy Stevens of the Buccaneers proved, no one likes a trash-talking tight end. Especially if they have a weird King Tut beard.
The Giants have also been getting good returns out of their special teams the last few weeks. Maybe that’s luck, or maybe the trend will continue. A free seven points on a Domenik Hixon runback certainly wouldn’t hurt their chances.
The point is, the Giants have the ability to hang with the Patriots. They have the experience of having done it once before, even if that Week 17 game was a little goofy because of the “will they play/won’t they play” factor.
Are there still questions without answers? Sure. Even if the Giants slow down Brady, can they keep Laurence Maroney from doing to them what he did to the Chargers? Is Lawrence Tynes ““ who missed two clutch field goals against the Packers before making a third ““ a surer bet to nail a game-saving kick than Stephen Gostkowski, who’s hardly faced any pressure all season? Do Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning really have a prayer against a Bill Belichick-coached team that’s had an extra week to prepare?
Maybe, maybe not. But if the Giants win, it’d be one of the biggest upsets in recent football history, whether or not the players on either team would ever admit it. And I’ll be damned if I’m going to miss out on picking it because of something as silly as common sense.
Giants 34, Pats 32. Stephen Gostkowski, meet Scott Norwood.