On Feb. 5 voters in California will go to the polls to nominate their party’s candidate for president.
But in this presidential election cycle, unlike others in the recent past, their votes will have a profound effect upon the nominee of their party.
In this election, rather than voting after each party’s presidential nominee has essentially been chosen by the rest of the country, California will vote with 23 other states in what experts consider one of the more hotly contested primary processes in modern memory.
This comes as a result of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s March 2007 decision to sign into law a bill moving California’s presidential primary to the first Tuesday of February.
“Due to the lateness of when California held its presidential primary in the past, it didn’t have the same clout politically as it did compared to its role as a financier of campaigns,” said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for the California Republican Party.
“California was more of an ATM (for candidates) and the nominating process had been determined before Californians voted,” he added.
Now, experts argue, California has increased its political prominence in a way that more closely reflects its financial one.
“(California is) going to be very important. You are going to see those candidates up and down the state. They are going to be around,” said Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser for the California Democratic Party.
But California’s move to increase its prominence was followed by several other states, ultimately resulting in 24 states holding primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5. As a result, the goal may not have been fully realized.
“What (front-loading primaries) essentially did was it made Iowa and New Hampshire that much more important. So I’d say the strategy backfired,” said UCLA political science professor Lynn Vavreck.
Nevertheless, California is the largest of the “Super Tuesday” voting states, and offers the most delegates.
The Democratic Party will send a total of 471 California delegates to its party convention, while the Republican Party will send 173.
Partially as a result of this high delegate count, California has received more attention from the presidential candidates than it has in the past.
In a demonstration of its new prominence, earlier this week candidates from both parties unveiled ads that will air in the state. In late January, the candidates will convene in Los Angeles for a final debate before the crucial Feb. 5 vote.
“If our primary was in late February or March, there would be no debate (in California),” Mulholland said.
Along with the significance of the early primary, in this election cycle the role of non-partisan voters has become more prominent.
On Jan. 8 Independents played a significant part in the New Hampshire primary victory of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and the strong showing of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
In the California primary, however, their effect will only be felt by the Democratic Party, which, unlike the Republican Party, will allow them to vote in their primary.
“It was a no-brainer for the Democrats, and the Republicans are fools for not allowing Independents to vote in their primary. They will pay a price in November,” Mulholland said.
“There is going to be enough time between when our nominee is chosen and the November general election for California voters to be educated on the Republican candidate’s vision for the country and their platform. For that reason, I don’t think Republicans will be at a disadvantage in California in November (with regards to Independent voters),” Roberts said.